What Max Verstappen staying at Red Bull means for Mercedes

Earlier this week, Red Bull's Helmut Marko confirmed Max Verstappen would remain at the team in 2026 amid much speculation over a switch to Mercedes.

At the core of the rumours linking him with a move away from Red Bull was a clause in the Dutchman's contract that would allow him to leave the team if he was not in the top three at the start of the summer break.

However, with just one more race weekend to go before the clause kicks in, Verstappen is guaranteed to be third due to the current deficit that exists to George Russell behind.

But was the clause really the all-important deciding factor? Even at the time when rumours of a Mercedes move by 2026 were at their strongest, very few assumed Verstappen would not be in that top three. 

If he made the decision, it would have been his own doing rather than based on words embedded in his contract. Whatever can be said about Red Bull's current form, Mercedes is a team that seems to be slipping backwards this season.

Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff has never hidden the fact that he is interested in poaching Verstappen. While Verstappen wants to seek out the fastest car, Wolff also wants to ensure he has the fastest drivers behind the wheel at his organisation.

For him, that is Max Verstappen, and incumbents George Russell and Kimi Antonelli were all too aware of the threat Verstappen posed.

But Russell and Antonelli can now seemingly breathe a sigh of relief. 

Wolff indicated that continuing with Russell and Antonelli was "priority” in recent weeks, and it seems the Mercedes line-up will be unchanged into the sport's new era under fresh technical regulations.

Article continues below the image

But postponement of the link-up between Mercedes and Verstappen does not have to mean postponement for Wolff. 

Verstappen is manoeuvring himself into a position where he can quietly watch how the F1 teams shape up during the rule changes in 2026. It is up to Mercedes to do its homework and ensure it emerges as the logical favourite for Verstappen's signature in 2027.

In that case, one of the core issues at the root of signing Verstappen will resume -  who will make room for the four-time champion? 

Both contracts of Russell and Antonelli expire at the end of this year. Wolff will be happy to slip at least one of them a one-year contract to be flexible in case any chance to sign Verstappen arises.

The likelihood of Russell agreeing to such a deal is not so strong, given he has been the name most associated with a potential exit in the event of Mercedes signing Verstappen for 2026. 

Having taken over the team leader moniker following the exit of Lewis Hamilton, Russell will want long-term stability for his F1 future.

Antonelli, meanwhile, is a prodigy of Mercedes and is far from a polished final product. It's clear Mercedes wish to take its time with the young Italian.

Having enjoyed a consistent start to his F1 career, Antonelli has endured a more troubling time of late. Mercedes was not expecting Antonelli to be a complete driver during his rookie season.

Many legends, including Mercedes target Verstappen, had difficult periods as a youngster with various mistakes. Wolff will also keep that in mind. He made a firm promise to himself after missing out on Verstappen in the mid-2010s that he did not want another potential superstar to slip through his grasp again.

Incidentally, Antonelli does have an expiring contract with the factory team, but a long-term contract with Mercedes as a company.

With the grid largely stabilised for next year when the new rules will come into effect, the rumour mill will likely start once again next year when the pecking order takes shape.