Heading into 2021, the battle of the midfield looks set to be incredibly close this year. In fact, the battle is so close that Alpine's Executive Director Marcin Budkowski believes that it can't even be called a 'midfield' any more, saying, "The midfield no longer exists, it is really just 'a field'." Assuming, after testing, that the lead battle will be made up of Red Bull Racing and Mercedes, the majority of the rest of the field looks impossible to determine a pecking order for, so let's look at the candidates and why they each have a chance at P3. AlphaTauri are the obvious candidate to start, thanks to their impressive laptimes set in testing. Yuki Tsunoda's Day 3 time was only beaten by Max Verstappen, and the AT02 looked a very tidy performer at a track that requires nimble handling, good traction, and a powerful engine. Using the same Honda engine, as well as an already race-winning chassis, the partnership of Pierre Gasly and the highly rated rookie Yuki Tsunoda is likely to yield strong results throughout the season. Ferrari look considerably better than they were in 2020, a season in which they claimed the occasional podium despite their problems. The engine is a clear step forward in terms of power, but there are question marks over how big a jump it is. Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz is another particularly potent driver pairing, with Sainz unlikely to be a pushover for the Monegasque. A fascinating intra-team rivalry awaits, which is sure to push Ferrari to far greater heights than last season. McLaren also looked particularly good in pre-season testing, thanks to an innovative and unique approach to their rear diffuser that means the loss of downforce affecting the field, hasn't affected their MCL35M as much. Certainly, McLaren have caught the eye of Red Bull's Helmut Marko, who thinks the team could slot into the lead battle with them and Mercedes. The switch to Mercedes power from Renault is, arguably, a decent upgrade and appears to have gone seamlessly for the Woking team. Daniel Ricciardo's signing means the team now have a proven race winner once again, alongside the youthful exuberance of the increasingly impressive Lando Norris. The only question mark over McLaren is that, while they are likely to start strongly, their diffuser design isn't expected to take a long time to be copied by other teams. Once, or if, the other teams follow suit, might McLaren slip back a little? Aston Martin are a particular unknown heading into the season. With so many technical issues plaguing the team in pre-season testing, there was a sense that the true pace of the car never quite got revealed. Lance Stroll did manage to put in some strong times while the car did run, but the reliability issues will cause concern for the former Racing Point team. Recent race winning experience, coupled with the arrival of four time World Champion Sebastian Vettel, means you shouldn't bet against them for long. Alpine, the former Renault team, are another complete unknown. They had a pre-season test that was almost the complete opposite of Alpine. Racking up plenty of miles with no major mechanical issues, both Esteban Ocon and Fernando Alonso pounded in the laps. However, none of those laps were particularly fast, and there has been rumours in Spanish press that Alonso has already said the A521 isn't particularly fast. The car it evolved from, the R.S.20, was a podium finisher in 2020, so it's a case of watch this space there...
The same three teams that struggled for performance in 2020 are very likely to face the same issues in 2021. Alfa Romeo, of the three, are the most likely to improve, however marginally, from last season. This is mostly due to the team spending both of their performance tokens over the winter, unlike Haas and Williams, while also having the updated Ferrari power unit. Haas, too, have this new engine but have elected not to spend both tokens and have already spoken about not developing the 2021 car in order to concentrate on the 2022 car. Williams, too, have not spent both tokens. The FW43B has lost a little weight compared to the 2020 car but, like Haas, isn't likely to develop much through the year as the team look to rebuild for the new regulation cycle.
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