With three rounds remaining in the 2025 F1 season — and a sprint still to come in Qatar — Max Verstappen’s hopes of defending his crown are hanging by the finest of threads.
The Dutchman’s 49-point deficit to Lando Norris after the São Paulo Grand Prix is daunting, and Oscar Piastri sits between them, just 25 points ahead of Verstappen.
Yet the maths is clear: the title is not settled, and the run-in leaves room for drama.
RacingNews365 has broken down several 'what if' scenarios that could still tip the balance in Verstappen’s favour.
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What if Verstappen wins everything from here?
If Verstappen dominates the final phase of the season — winning Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi, along with the Qatar sprint — the Dutchman can still turn the tables regardless of how bruising the points gap currently looks.
Taking the maximum haul would give him a monumental swing against his McLaren rivals, especially if Norris and Piastri are unable to match his results.
In this scenario, Norris is forced into a defensive mode.
Even finishing second to Verstappen in every remaining race would leave the championship hanging by a thread going into Abu Dhabi.
Verstappen would be in full hunter-killer mode, and with his historic late-season form, he has precedent for delivering exactly that kind of run.
What if McLaren falter — even slightly?
Neither McLaren driver needs a retirement for the fight to be reignited.
A single low-scoring weekend for the team — a bad qualifying in Las Vegas, a damaged front wing in Qatar, or a strategic misstep — could compress the standings dramatically.
Verstappen’s deficit to Piastri is only 25 points, meaning the Australian is well within range if his form dips.
Should McLaren have even one compromised grand prix, Verstappen can pounce.
A 15- to 20-point swing in one weekend is far from unheard of; achieve that twice and suddenly the championship complexion changes entirely.
In this scenario, Verstappen’s pathway relies more on McLaren stumbling than pure domination from Red Bull, but the margins are narrow enough that it remains realistic.
What if Qatar becomes the turning point?
The Qatar weekend, with both a sprint and a full grand prix, is the last major inflexion point of the season.
If Verstappen wins both and Norris and Piastri fail to finish on the podium, the Dutchman could claw back 15 to 20 points before the final two rounds even begin.
This is the kind of weekend that can destabilise a championship leader.
If Norris feels the pressure and Piastri finds himself sandwiched between the rivals, team dynamics could get complicated.
Qatar provides Verstappen the biggest single opportunity left in the season; if he leaves Lusail with the gap cut to the low thirties, the title fight becomes very real again.
What if Piastri becomes the disruptor?
Piastri sits between Norris and Verstappen in the standings, and his role in this three-way fight is unusually delicate.
If the Australian outperforms his team-mate — especially in Las Vegas or Abu Dhabi — he could unintentionally help Verstappen by taking points off Norris.
In this scenario, Verstappen no longer needs both McLarens to falter — just the right one.
A McLaren intra-team battle could become a headache for Norris, with Piastri’s aggressive one-lap pace and growing race craft making him a genuine threat.
For Verstappen, the ideal outcome is Piastri beating Norris while still scoring fewer points than Red Bull. It creates the perfect wedge.
What if Verstappen slips — even once?
There is also the uncomfortable scenario for Red Bull: any mistake from Verstappen likely ends the fight immediately.
A DNF, a collision, or even a muted sixth-place finish would eliminate nearly all mathematical possibilities.
With only three rounds left and Norris scoring consistently, Verstappen must hit a flawless run, something he recognises better than anyone.
This scenario places the spotlight on Red Bull’s execution. Strategy, pit stops, reliability and tyre management all need to be spotless from here to Abu Dhabi. There is zero margin for error.
What if the final round becomes a straight shoot-out?
There remains a romantic possibility: Abu Dhabi, once again, could stage a title decider.
For that to happen, Verstappen needs to outscore Norris by roughly 20 to 25 points across the next two rounds — a challenge, yes, but not implausible with a sprint in play.
If the gap shrinks to within 25 points before the finale, we could witness a three-way showdown between Norris, Piastri, and Verstappen.
The odds are against him, but Verstappen’s 2025 title hopes are very much alive — and the path to glory is built as much on McLaren’s potential missteps as on his own ability.
If he can combine a late-season surge with a bit of fortune, a fifth world championship remains within reach.
The story isn’t over. Three rounds, a sprint, and 83 points still lie ahead — and F1 has a habit of keeping its most dramatic twists for last.
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