Our suspicions were confirmed during the qualifying session for the Bahrain Grand Prix, Red Bull and Max Verstappen are the combination to beat with the Dutch driver claiming pole by a comfortable margin of over three-tenths. Coming to the race strategy it is highly unlikely for any of the front runners to try their hand at a single stop strategy as the abrassive nature of track surface leads to a higher level of degradation meaning that the tires may not last for the duration of the 57 lap race. The ideal scenario for a driver, especially one who is at the front, will be to start the race on the medium compound tire before switching to the hard tire during their first pitstop and returning to the mediums for their final stint.
What Pirelli have said
The Italian tire company has re-iterated the strategy mentioned above in a statement. "The abrasive track surface with high degradation makes a two-stopper the most likely scenario – but the exact two-stopper selected will depend on each driver’s tyre availability for tomorrow," Pirelli said in a statement. The tire brand proceeded to highlight three different strategies that the drivers could implement saying that the first and quickest strategy would be to do two stints on the medium tire with a target to complete 18 laps in each stint and a 21 lap stint on the hard compound tire used at some point during the race. The second quickest strategy would be to use all three compounds with the soft tires being used for 14 laps, the hards for 24 laps, and the mediums for 19 laps. The third option would be to use the softs for 15 laps with two sets of the medium compound tires being used for 21 laps in two seperate stints. The final strategy could be implemented by using the soft tires for two different stints totalling 32 laps with the hard tire carrying the burden for the remaining 25 laps.
The front runners
Of the top 10 qualifiers it's only Verstappen, the Mercedes pair of Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas and Pierre Gasly, the biggest surprise during qualifying, who have the luxury of starting on the medium compound tire. Hamilton in particular will be hoping his skills at managing the Pirelli rubber will give him the edge over Verstappen, as each team's tire strategy could affect their final result. With Perez starting 11th, one of either Bottas or Hamilton might have to sacrifice their strategy to put the Red Bull team under pressure with the hope of forcing them into an error. For Gasly, he will be hoping for a repeat of his 2018 performance when the Frenchman finished fourth driving for the Faenza-based team. Each of those four drivers will be looking to make their pitstop between lap 16 and 18 depending on other mitigating circumstances, with the target of using the hard tire for approximately 20 or so laps before returning to the mediums to finish their race.
The remaining six
The two Ferrari drivers, the two McLaren drivers, Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll will make their race starts with the unfavorable soft tire. This puts them at a distinct disadvantage as the high fuel loads coupled with the relatively higher temperatures mean that they will have to nurse their Pirelli's during the early part of the race. Each of those drivers will in all likelihood stop around five laps earlier than those on the medium compound tire and will then have to stretch the life of their hard tires for over 20 laps before aligning themselves on a similar strategy to the aforementioned drivers.
The midpack
Red Bull's Sergio Perez has the perfect platform to show his new employers exactly why they hired him. The Mexican has always been able to maximise the life of his tires on race day and given his penchant for delivering on a Sunday is sure to ruffle the feathers of those in front of him. The other driver to watch will be AlphaTauri's Yuki Tsunoda who will start the race from 13th on the grid. Given that those outside the top 10 will have a free choice of tire compound to choose from, Tsunoda might be tempted to start the race on a fresh set of soft tires as he aims to make up some lost ground. A brief glimpse at the image below shows that a lot of the drivers who are starting outside the top 10 have a fresh set of soft tires to deploy meaning they could be used either at the start or towards the end of the race to mount a charge up the order provided they can extend the life of their hard tires.
Backmarkers
Four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel must be wondering what he has to do to change his luck. The German driver will start the first race of the 2021 F1 season from 18th and he will be hoping the race proves to be an inflection point for what has proved to be a disappointing start to life as an Aston Martin driver. Alpine's Esteban Ocon will be another to look out for as the Frenchman will look to catapult himself up the order with an alternate strategy given that he has three sets of soft tires to call upon.
Variables
As always these strategies can go out the window when a variable such as a crash or a safety car is thrown into the mix. The best example of which was the last race at Sakhir where a blunder from Mercedes enabled Perez, Ocon, and Stroll to occupy the podium positions, with Perez winning the race after being last at the conclusion of the first lap.
While the race might throw up a surprising result or two, there is no getting around the fact that the biggest storyline takes place right at the front of the grid. Verstappen and Hamilton are two of the sport's biggest names and the fans have been begging for a dogfight between the two drivers for quite some time now. If Hamilton can beat Verstappen at this point in the season in what many percieve as inferior machinery, the Englishman will surely gain a psychological advantage. Verstappen on the other hand has so far driven flawlessly around the Bahrain International Circuit and there is no reason to suspect why he will not take the checkered flag at the conclusion of the event.
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