The 2024 São Paulo Grand Prix offers relevant comparisons to the current championship situation this season.
Max Verstappen had dominated the early stages of 2024, yet Red Bull's RB20 gradually lost its development advantage as the season progressed. Meanwhile, McLaren was working through challenges in their own upgrade programme, with both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri claiming their maiden grand prix victories thanks to the team's improvement.
Heading into the São Paulo GP, Verstappen held a 47-point advantage over Norris in the F1 drivers' title. Despite Verstappen's advantage, the momentum had shifted towards Norris, with many observers believing a comeback remained possible.
The statistics showed the trend: from the Dutch Grand Prix onwards, Verstappen had accumulated 85 points whilst Norris gathered 113 in the same period. Mexico, the race prior, had seen that gap narrow by a further 10 points.
McLaren arrived at Interlagos with renewed confidence. Piastri secured sprint pole, with Norris alongside on the front row. The Australian controlled the sprint race before strategically allowing his team-mate past, prioritising Norris' title aspirations.
Verstappen crossed the line third but received a five-second time penalty for an infringement under the late virtual safety car, demoting him to fourth.
The sprint result left Norris' title deficit at 44 points, with qualifying postponed to Sunday morning due to torrential rain. For the first time since Japan 2019, qualifying would be held on the same day as the race, adding another layer of complexity to an already challenging weekend.
Qualifying chaos
Sunday morning's qualifying session proved chaotic. Franco Colapinto, Carlos Sainz, Lance Stroll, Fernando Alonso, and Alex Albon each triggered red flag periods, with Albon's damage proving terminal for his race participation.
Verstappen found himself caught in the wrong place at the wrong time, qualifying a disappointing 12th.
A tactical engine change earned the Dutchman a five-place grid penalty, relegating him to 17th on the starting grid. Norris, conversely, lined up at the front, presenting a good opportunity to make gains in the championship fight.
The formation lap itself provided early drama, with Stroll beaching his Aston Martin in the gravel, necessitating a third formation lap before the race could commence.
Norris' getaway proved poor, allowing George Russell to move past, whilst Verstappen progressed through the field efficiently, reaching sixth position within 12 laps.
Wet weather havoc
The key moment arrived when Nico Hulkenberg lost control at Turn 1, prompting a virtual safety car.
Russell and Norris pitted for fresh rubber, but Esteban Ocon, Verstappen, and Pierre Gasly remained on track, a decision that would prove beneficial.
As the rain intensified, five drivers changed to full wet-weather tyres, immediately finding better pace compared to those continuing with intermediates.
Yuki Tsunoda moved through the field effectively, climbing to sixth before race control deployed the safety car.
Colapinto's subsequent heavy crash behind the safety car brought out the red flag, allowing those who had remained on track a free tyre change.
Suddenly, Ocon, Verstappen, and Gasly found themselves ahead of Russell and Norris, their strategic patience paying off.
Verstappen supreme
The restart proved important. Ocon took the lead briefly from Verstappen, but any hopes of an upset were ended when Sainz's crash triggered another safety car period. Verstappen overtook Ocon decisively on the restart.
Behind them, Norris's title chances took a significant hit as a mistake dropped him to seventh. What followed was a typical Verstappen performance. The 28-year-old pulled clear of the Alpine duo with each passing lap, his skill in difficult conditions evident.
The victory margin of 19 seconds over Ocon was substantial, though both the Frenchman and third-placed Gasly delivered strong performances to secure Alpine's jump from ninth to sixth in the constructors' standings.
Norris recovered to sixth place after Piastri's late gesture of letting him past, but the championship mathematics had delivered their clear verdict. His title challenge had suffered a major setback on the wet Interlagos circuit.
Brazil 2024 was not Verstappen's first strong wet-weather performance at Interlagos, yet it demonstrated the champion's ability to deliver when under pressure.
With weather forecasts suggesting another rain-affected weekend at Interlagos, the similarities to that important 2024 race suggest the current title race could face its own decisive moment in Brazilian conditions.
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