Why Mercedes will be kingmaker in Red Bull's F1 title defence

Red Bull vs. McLaren. 10 rounds. 485 points on offer. A mere 42 currently separating the two teams.

It is the championship fight we never thought we would get. It is the battle we never imagined we wanted.

It may not be the drivers' championship, which is what most tend to tune in for, but after the most dominant and devastating season in the history of F1, and an opening five rounds that suggested more of the same, we will take what we can get - and it is still a tantalising prospect.

To say it is unexpected would be an understatement, to say the least. After the Miami Grand Prix, the gap between the two teams stood at 115 points.

And whilst Red Bull's largest lead in the constructors' standings was actually only 71 points, to Ferrari after the British Grand Prix, the Italian team has fallen back and now trails McLaren by 21.

The rate of the Woking team's advance over the past eight rounds is staggering. In a game of momentum, it has it.

If Lando Norris was, to a certain extent, fortunate to win in Florida, what has come after is anything but.

Since F1's trip to the Sunshine State, Oscar Piastri has scored 126 points. Norris, meanwhile, has scored 116.

It is striking consistency and underlines not only the progress McLaren has made with the MCL38, but how well its two drivers are performing.

To contrast the papaya squad's individual hauls over the same period, Max Verstappen has taken 141 points, but his team-mate has claimed just 28.

And therein lies Red Bull's single biggest issue. Sergio Perez has been gifted a stay of execution. 10 rounds to save not only his seat, but his F1 career.

If he cannot turn things around, Red Bull will have sacrificed the constructors' crown to afford him an opportunity at redemption.

But even if he can arrest his torrid run of form and provide anything close to what is expected of him, it could be a case of too little, too late.

The healthy advantage Red Bull once enjoyed is gone. McLaren's car is now on par with the RB20, which is increasingly becoming difficult and unpredictable.

It undoubtedly remains a strong package, but the volatile nature of the RB20 means that even if Perez can turn up over the final 10 rounds, at best, Red Bull faces a straight shootout with McLaren.

Joker or kingmaker?

There is, however, a joker in the pack. A saving grace for the reigning champions, and a potential spoiler to McLaren's pursuit of a first constructors' title since 1998 - which was, quite remarkably, before either of its two drivers were born.

If the Woking outfit's rise to contention has been impressive, Mercedes' recovery has been a match for it.

Having done so, it turns the leading duo into a victory-hunting trio. Whether Ferrari rejoins the party remains to be seen, but McLaren's own power unit supplier's re-emergence poses a serious risk to its lofty championship aspirations.

With two wins on merit in the past three rounds, Mercedes' return to form creates a three-way fight for wins and podiums - something that is more likely to favour Red Bull than McLaren.

That is because the Brackley team taking consistent, strong hauls of points benefits the status quo.

The counter-point

The contrarian view is that Mercedes could hamper Red Bull by limiting its ability to defend its lead.

This would, in theory, be by getting between Red Bull and McLaren, thus reducing the former's opportunity to minimise large points swings on weekends the latter dominates.

However, unless this happens in a strange and irregular pattern - which it could, fascinatingly so - even if the German marque does split the two, if McLaren is on top, on average, over the final 10 rounds, it would have beaten Red Bull to the title anyway.

And, conversely, if Red Bull has the edge, and Mercedes hinders McLaren, then it is reinforcing the status quo: the Milton Keynes squad retaining its crown.

So, with a 42 point delta between the two leaders, Mercedes' presence in the battle for wins and podiums defends the hunted more than it aides the hunter.

Therefore Mercedes could, ultimately, end up getting in McLaren's way, handing its old rival a third consecutive constructors' title in the process.