Norris to channel inner Vettel to beat Verstappen

Lando Norris must overturn a 78-point deficit to Max Verstappen when F1 returns from the summer break if he is to become drivers' champion.

Whilst this represents a comfortable advantage for the Dutchman, with 10 grands prix and three sprints remaining, the battle is far from over.

Although title comebacks are not unheard of in F1, the McLaren driver would have to pull off what would be an unprecedented feat. 

Sebastian Vettel holds the record for the greatest recovery, points-wise. In F1 lore, the German is often remembered for dominantly winning his four world championships. However, that may be revising history.

In fact, two of Vettel's four titles were comeback crowns. In both 2010 and 2012, he fought his way back to claim the title.

His first championship came having not led the title race until he crossed the line at the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

In 2012, his third championship came after overturning a 39-point deficit to Fernando Alonso with seven races to run. 

A stretch of four consecutive victories set Vettel back on track, and the German was able to fend off the Spanish driver over the final three rounds, eventually taking the title by just three points.

Breaking down the numbers

Norris must draw inspiration from Vettel's 2012 accomplishment, because numerically, the odds are stacked against him.

In a scenario where both drivers complete all remaining 10 grands prix, if Verstappen can finish second in all, Norris will have to go on a faultless winning run across the rest of the season, and claim the extra fastest lap point in almost all races.

Whilst that remains highly unlikely, particularly given the form book, it emphasises the size of the task.

Sprints provide an added factor. With three still to run, an additional 24 points are on offer, bringing the total available points to 284 over the final 10 rounds.

If Norris can achieve the feat mentioned above, including the sprints and assuming he claims all 10 fastest lap points, he will end the season on 483 points.

Verstappen, meanwhile, would finish the year on 478, five points behind. The best part about this scenario is that Norris would only take the championship lead in Abu Dhabi, much like Vettel did in 2010, as the Dutchman would enter the final round leading the McLaren driver 460 points to 457.

Having managed to maintain a sizeable advantage in the face of recent difficulties for the Red Bull RB20, the title race is naturally in Verstappen's hands. 

However, even in this outlandish scenario, one more victory for the three-time drivers' champion, beating Norris just once, would render all nine of the Briton's hypothetical wins redundant.

And, in doing so, Verstappen himself would emulate Vettel by claiming his fourth consecutive drivers' title in a Red Bull.