Is Red Bull chaos driving Max Verstappen towards stunning F1 exit?

To immediately cut to the chase, there are no public signs that Max Verstappen is considering abandoning the Red Bull ship - and heading for a lifeboat skippered by one T.Wolff. 

After a disappointing Chinese GP, where he finished an off-the-pace fourth, the four-time F1 champion was asked about his future. He deftly batted away the question, doing just enough to ensure headlines such as 'VERSTAPPEN ON VERGE OF RED BULL EXIT' were not flashed around the world. 

Verstappen is in second place in the drivers' championship, just eight points behind Lando Norris, but after the utter crushing domination of 2023, the once-great team is struggling. 

The malaise at Red Bull started in 2023 with an upgrade at the Spanish Grand Prix to the underbody of the car that meant Sergio Perez simply could not drive the RB19 as he wished, and how Verstappen could. 

But seeing as every conceivable record fell Verstappen's way in one of the greatest individual seasons by any athlete in any sport, Red Bull did not listen, and when Perez rallied at the start of 2024 with four podiums from the first five races, all appeared well. 

But then Perez's form fell off a cliff, and Red Bull's technical wizard Adrian Newey handed in his notice, having been with Red Bull for 19 years. He later reflected the team was not taking seriously Perez's reports of being unable to drive the car.

Elsewhere, long-time sporting director Jonathan Wheatley also quit to become team principal at Stake/Audi whilst strategy chief Will Courtenay additionally announced a move to McLaren - although he is still serving out his contract.

Then there was the civil war that erupted within Red Bull at the start of 2024 over the allegations surrounding boss Christian Horner - which he firmly denied - but the rot had set in.

Across the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian double-header, a war of words broke out with Horner on one side and Red Bull bosses Oliver Mintzlaff and Helmut Marko on the other. Horner, though, had the crucial backing of Chalerm Yoovidhya, the Thai Red Bull owner with 51% of shares in the company.

Eventually, a truce was called although tensions remained frosty as the oldest tonic in sport covered over all the deep cracks: Winning. 

Verstappen started like a train, winning seven of the first 10 races as the RB20 left the field for dust, but around mid-season, those alarm bells started to ring as the performance slowly ebbed away.

Red Bull - always the gold standard in terms of pit stops and strategy - started to make mistakes as the mess of the driver situation it had somehow manoeuvred itself into came back to bite. 

Rumbling away in the background have been the 2026 technical regulations, with Red Bull preparing its own power unit for the new rules for the first time. 

Red Bull Powertrains (RBPT), and Horner for that matter, has spoken a good game, including claiming to have snatched 200 staff from Mercedes High-Performance Powertrains, something the latter refuted.

But the fact remains it is a major unknown heading into the new season, with Mercedes believed to be some way ahead of its rivals in development.

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The Dream Team falls apart

On January 1st, 2024 Red Bull was in as strong a place as any F1 team has ever been. It had the best driver, the best car, the best designer, the best sporting director and one of the most successful team principals in grand prix history. 

A little over 14 months later, it has the best driver, but it no longer has the best car, the best designer has started work at an ambitious rival, the sporting director sought a new challenge to guide Audi to the top, and the team principal has taken flak for his terrible decision-making. 

Perez was handed a new two-year contract, even when it was clear he was on the decline. Lawson was deemed tough enough to go up against the machine of Verstappen with just 11 races to his name, when Perez, the veteran of 281 starts had been ground into the dust.

Lawson has now been jettisoned with the team playing up Tsunoda's experience - of 89 starts - to help guide the development of the RB21 as Red Bull tries desperately to claw its way back into race-winning and title-contending positions. 

Red Bull must show Verstappen it can still develop a car capable of his talents and turn the RB21 into the machine he demands. Forget Tsunoda or Lawson, Red Bull's biggest problem right now is keeping hold of Verstappen or risk losing him to a rival, for potentially 2026. 

If he doesn't want to be at Red Bull to see out of the final three years of his contract, very simply Verstappen will not do so. Red Bull must wake up now to that nightmare scenario having sleepwalked itself to the brink.