The curious case of George Russell and his 'weird state of mind'

If George Russell thought the 43-point deficit to Kimi Antonelli coming out of the Canadian Grand Prix was bad, you have to wonder how he's found trying 68 points on for size.

Three rounds into the F1 season, his Mercedes team-mate assumed the lead in the F1 drivers' standings, opening up a nine-point advantage. No one would have predicted that the gap would grow by another 59 over the next three.

But that isn't even the most concerning part for Russell. Even if the calendar stays at the current 22 rounds, the season is only just over a quarter of the way done.

As he said himself after the Monaco Grand Prix, "we're not even 30 per cent of the way through" the schedule. And the British driver still possesses the innate self-belief that is necessary for almost all elite athletes to compete at that level, let alone win. 

But in the same breath, Russell also conceded that "there have been a lot of points down the drain" this year.

By his own admission, at least two victories fell by the wayside, in Montreal and Suzuka. Add those 50 points to his tally and take the extra 14 — at least — subsequently gained by Antonelli, the deficit in the title fight is down to just four points.

But the standings, or how he suddenly also finds himself two points behind former team-mate Lewis Hamilton in the table, aren't what should, or indeed does, worry Russell.

The cause for concern

What has "bamboozled" Russell, in his own words, is the whiplash-inducing 180 in fortunes he has experienced in the cockpit of his Mercedes since the start of the campaign.

After qualifying in Monte Carlo, the 27-year-old said, "The start of the year was just easy. Every lap I did in practice, qualifying, it was P1 - worst case, P2 - every single session. Q1, Q2, Q3.

"Last three races, it's just been nowhere. Even Canada was a real fight to get a decent lap, and then I just nailed it at the end of both of those sessions, but that was sort of like pulling something special out of the hat and a little bit 'lucky' to do it at the right time.

"But that's just where I am right now. I don't really know."

He illustrated his point by explaining how the W17, of the new F1 era, wants something very different from its driver than its predecessor, which was of the previous generation.

By Russell's own account, the new Mercedes doesn't naturally mesh with his driving style in the way that it seemingly has gelled with Antonelli's, which is a departure from last season.

"So either I need to adjust to this — and I'll do my best to do that — but it still doesn't answer why the start of the year was such a breeze," he added.

And that is the single biggest cause for concern, the fact that the six-time grand prix winner appears bereft of answers as to how he can turn his slumping form around, even more so when you consider that Antonelli is starting to soar.

At the curtain raiser in Melbourne, when things were still "easy" for Russell, he still commanded the comfortable margin he enjoyed over the teenager last year.

That has evaporated, and the swing towards Antonelli hasn't merely been a correction; it's opened up a disparity between the pair, not a gulf, but enough to give pause for thought.

Around the time of the British Grand Prix in 2024, I said on our podcast that if Mercedes can provide Russell a car that can fight for championships, he's ready — or something to that effect.

Last year, he proved he was, but just in a car that most certainly was not ready to compete for the crown.

And I maintain that the George Russell of 2025, in this Mercedes, wins the title by a country mile. The issue is, this isn't 2025, and Antonelli isn't the Kimi Antonelli of 2025, either.

Call it luck, call it a spiral

Toto Wolff was quick to publicly back Russell in the wake of the bemusing, if not frustrating, series of unfortunate events in the Principality, which ultimately started with a lack of pace in qualifying.

"George is really good at analysing and assessing the situation," the Mercedes team principal said.

"I told him that he was on pole [in Canada], he won the sprint race, and was leading the main grand prix, and there was no discussion about a lack of speed. 

"That was two weeks ago, so we've got to stay with both feet on the ground, work through the data and see why Monaco was difficult, and why Miami was difficult, but it is not a pattern that I've seen through the season."

But Russell's own comments in the pen after the race were illuminating. "I am beyond frustrated now, and just struggling to comprehend how the season is panning out," were the first words out of his mouth. Understandably.

Call it luck, call it a spiral, but the Briton is at a loss to explain how the campaign is slipping away from him, and he needs to do something to arrest the slide. And he needs to do it now.

"I am in a very, very weird state of mind because I've had very low moments in my career where maybe I've had a run of two or three bad races on my own personal performance, but I've never had a run of bad luck such as this," he added.

"It didn't happen when the car was P7 two years ago, or a P3 or P4 car last year, and now I've got the car, it feels very painful, but there is still a long way to go. 

"I still very much believe in myself and that we're going to be fighting for race wins until the end of the year, but right now, it is tough...

"I know that qualifying was a bad day for me, I accept that, but the result of the last two races, I wish I could take some responsibility for the car breaking down in Canada, or the penalties [in Monaco], but it is completely outside of my control, and that is an incredibly difficult pill to swallow."

The trouble is, he doesn't seem to know how to right now; to arrest the slide or swallow the bitter pill he's been handed.

The good news is that there are five rounds in seven weekends heading into the summer break, meaning Russell has ample opportunity to strike back, and come the interval, things could look very different.

After the race, he insisted that he doesn't "believe in good luck or bad luck" before highlighting his misfortune in Canada, Japan and the snowball effect the first penalty in Monaco had on his afternoon, turning what could have been a podium into another scoreless round.

But things will balance themselves out. They always do in sport across the ebbs and flows of an entire season. And, anyway, luck is beside the point; Russell cannot control luck, as he well knows.

What he can control, however, is whether he bounces back and how.

He needs to find a way by finding answers to the questions he has — which, with his "weird state of mind," might be easier said than done — because this isn't 2025, and the Kimi Antonelli of yesteryear isn't coming back, either.