Toto Wolff may protest, but Kimi Antonelli is in this F1 title fight

To almost quote Hamlet, the Mercedes team principal doth protest too much, methinks. 

If laboured LL Cool J references weren't tough to stomach (See my previous column), at least Shakespeare showcases some range, right? But I digress...

In the wake of Kimi Antonelli becoming the youngest grand prix winner in F1 history at the Shanghai International Circuit, and also the first Italian driver to triumph in two decades, Toto Wolff revelled in the fact that it had proven the doubters wrong, following criticism for elevating the 19-year-old so soon.

"When things go bad, there are the people who come out and say, 'that was a bad decision', and 'Mercedes took too much risk'", the Austrian said.

"It was never like really harsh criticism, because people recognise the talent that he has, but there were many voices within the sport and outside that said: 'that was a mistake to do'."

But he also cautioned against getting carried away, even if there is satisfaction in vindication, adding: "So it's nice to have a little revanche, but obviously it's one race win. This sport that we live in is manic depressive; today, it's great, in two weeks we are in Japan, and if he puts it in the wall, people will say he's too young.

"So I think we need to just keep our feet on the ground."

Wolff was very keen to protect Antonelli from the weight of expectation that comes with all the deserved noise that surrounds the driver.

"You need to write that in Italy... that the biggest risk is... yeah, please help him," he continued.

"Remember last year, 'Grande Kimi' and whatever it was, and then came Imola, and there was an avalanche of pressure; there shouldn't be any pressure at the moment."

However, when F1 did reach Japan, Antonelli didn't put it in the wall; he did the opposite. Just a fortnight after his previous high point, the young Italian had a landmark weekend. 

His Japanese Grand Prix exploits delivered back-to-back wins for his home nation for the first time since 1953. In doing so, he became the youngest driver to ever lead the F1 world championship. And if that wasn't impressive enough, becoming the first teenager to do it should be.

The hard sell

Wolff was also lightning quick to shut down any suggestion that Antonelli was a protagonist in the drivers' title fight, the central contention of this column.

Earlier in his Sunday evening press briefing, the Mercedes boss had said: "You can see the hype that is going to start now, especially in Italy.

"I can already see the headlines: 'World champion, grande Kimi' and whatever. And that's really not good, because those mistakes are going to come.

"He's just a kid, so it's too early to even think about a championship. We have a good car that, at this stage, is capable of winning."

At that point, Antonelli trailed George Russell by four points. Now, by taking victory at Suzuka, he leads his team-mate in the standings by nine.

Speaking to Sky Sports F1 after the round in Japan, Wolff reiterated his stance, saying: "Now we need to protect him from people talking about world championships"

But what he is trying to sell will only get harder and harder to flog, because, whether he likes it or not, both of his drivers are in this battle.

Shrinking deficit

That said, it is a long way to go, and there is a lot Antonelli must do and learn to stack up against his more experienced and more ready team-mate.

It has to be acknowledged that he enjoyed a slice of good fortune in both his victories. Had it not been for Russell's issues in Q3 in Shanghai, the six-time grand prix winner may well have gone on to win there, too.

Russell is still the favourite, there is no doubt about that, but it isn't as clear-cut as it was heading into the year.

Last season, he generally held a three-tenths gap over the 19-year-old, save for a handful of rounds where it was either much closer or he was a shade slower, such as Miami, Azerbaijan and Sao Paulo.

Three weekends into the campaign, a delta is still there, especially over one lap, but the deficit is starting to come down, even if Russell is right not to be too concerned at this stage because, after all, the year is still young.

"It's three races down in 22... one lap different, and the victory would have been on my side, and I'm confident of that," he said in Japan.

"And in China, without the qualifying issue, maybe... You know, I was three-tenths ahead in sprint qualifying, so maybe I could have been on pole there and won that race."

Sometimes, in F1, you need luck to win, and that was none more evident than at Suzuka, where a confluence of events — from taking a wrong turn with set-up to the timing of the safety car — transpired against the Briton, in both qualifying and the race.

But — and whilst it was close — Antonelli was the quicker of the two in Japan.

And that is crucial, as his two victories could, at best, be transformative, and, at worst, be critical to providing him a new confidence to take the fight to Russell.

As an aside, the biggest test facing the Italian now is whether he can find ways to win when he isn't at his best, which is another key ingredient in winning crowns; because of that, he has yet to prove himself.

The McLaren comparison

In many ways, their situation has parallels to the McLaren battle between Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri last year.

The former was more experienced and held the edge over one lap, but the latter had made a step over the winter and was suddenly closer.

When asked how much he feels he has levelled up his performance since last season, Antonelli's self-belief shone through, and he is backing it up with the pace displayed on track, particularly in race trim.

"Big step," he replied. "Experience does a lot. Obviously, last year I went through a lot, and it taught me massively more than what I anticipated, and for sure, it's helping so far this year.

"Of course, there's still a lot of work to do, but I definitely feel much more in control of the situation."

Later in the same press conference, he went on to add, "But definitely, I've been closing the gap with him [Russell]. I think that, still in qualifying, he has the upper hand, especially when it comes to Q3.

"He's always able to find that little bit of extra, which I'm working on. But in terms of race pace, I think we have a really strong base."

Antonelli is not shying away from what a "super-strong, very complete driver" Russell is, and he isn't worrying about the prospect of an intra-team battle, either, as he also said after his victory at Suzuka.

The 19-year-old is "not thinking too much about the championship", and he is right not to — because, as has been pointed out, the season is only three rounds old — but that doesn't mean he isn't in the fight.

If what he has shown over the opening salvo of the campaign is the baseline from which he will continue to improve, and his trajectory is both a steep and a strong one, then the two-time grand prix winner will rack up more and more victories and put Russell under more and more pressure — and make the championship equation more and more compelling.

But for all the intrigue, much of what Wolff says is right; the mistakes will come, as they did last year and as they came for Piastri, eventually, too. It won't be lost on anyone reading this who ultimately won the title in 2025.

And the Mercedes boss is also right to try to shield Antonelli from the pressure he will face. Protecting a teenager, no matter how talented or how much of a superstar he is and will be, is understandable and admirable. It's PR, yes, but it's also being an effective team principal; Wolff is doing his job.

But what the championship leader showed in both China and Japan is that he is unequivocally in this title fight.

I know it, he knows it, George Russell knows it, and Toto Wolff knows it.