Why Norris only has three races to catch Verstappen in F1 title race

Lando Norris must already make history if he is to win the 2024 F1 world drivers' championship and overhaul Max Verstappen. 

At its peak, the gap between the two title protagonists was 84 points, with Verstappen eking out a further three points by overtaking Norris to finish second in the British Grand Prix, but in the six races since, Norris has chipped 32 points away to sit 52 behind the Red Bull.

If he were to keep this rate up of 5.3 points per race up across the final six grands prix, he would take a further 31.8 points out of Verstappen - which leaves him 20 points behind come the chequered flag in Abu Dhabi. That is before sprints are factored in, where Verstappen has a perfect score of 24 points from three wins thus far.

But the momentum is with Norris and McLaren. In the MCL38 it has a settled, uber-fast machine that has been proven to work on a variety of tracks and on those with varying corner profiles. 

As for Red Bull, it is scrambling, has its backs against the wall and its entire season rests on the much-vaunted upgrades being delivered for the United States Grand Prix. 

It simply cannot afford to not put the upgrades on for the sprint weekend in Austin, with there being no perfect time in the remaining six races to introduce the new floor. On a sprint weekend, there are just 60 minutes of practice before competitive running begins meaning Red Bull is facing its most critical session of the year on Friday. 

Three races for Norris to catch Verstappen

Whilst Red Bull finds itself at sixes and sevens, McLaren and Norris must come into the weekend, hit the ground running and do everything it can to leave Texas with 34 points more points on the board.

Given Verstappen has been out-performing the car, as evidenced by his fine second place in Singapore, he is firmly in damage limitation mode, but luck could be turning his way across the upcoming triple-header. The Red Bull is a strong package in Austin, where he's won the last three races, he dominates in Mexico City with five wins in the last six races there and is not too shabby in Sao Paulo either.

If Norris harbours any hopes of winning the championship, he must at least halve the deficit to Verstappen heading to Las Vegas for the final trio of grands prix. 

The gap has to be fewer than 26 points heading to Nevada, meaning Norris must take an average of 8.6 points out of the Dutchman per weekend across Austin-Mexico City-Sao Paulo. 

Should Norris win and take the fastest laps in all three races, and win both sprints, he will score 94 points and if Verstappen finishes second every time, he will bank 68 points. 

For those good at quick mental maths, that's a reduction of 26 points, exactly what Norris needs. But the variables of weather in Austin and especially Brazil and the various other foibles of a grand prix weekend make a perfect sweep highly unlikely.

Norris's mission may be aided by Mercedes and Ferrari getting their acts together and team-mate Oscar Piastri also causing mischief for Verstappen, especially if the Red Bull machine continues to splutter its way around the world. 

If any of those five drivers can muscle their way and drive a wedge between Norris and Verstappen, the Briton's task becomes a little easier to haul the big points he requires whilst Verstappen feeds on scraps, with the 'title race' still a tad lukewarm and has yet to be brought to the boil. 

The triple-header coming up is the most important leg of races of the season. If Verstappen heads home from Interlagos with a points lead starting with a 3, it is arguably game over. 

But if that deficit starts with a 2, then all bets are off heading to Sin City.