Helmut Marko has pinpointed the one thing that could save Max Verstappen's diminishing hopes of clinching a fifth successive F1 drivers' championship at the end of the season.
With just 83 points available over the remaining three rounds, which includes a sprint weekend in Qatar, the Red Bull driver must be near faultless if he stands any chance of overturning Lando Norris' 49-point advantage in the standings.
Marko, an adviser at the Milton Keynes-based squad, believes that "something has to happen" to McLaren's driver to help propel Verstappen back into the equation, such as a "retirement or a collision" on track.
Even then, the Briton's team-mate Oscar Piastri is still 25 points ahead of the 68-time grand prix winner.
"49 points behind Norris, with three grands prix and one sprint remaining – something has to happen for Lando Norris now if Max’s championship hopes are to stay alive," the 82-year-old wrote in his column for Speedweek.
"Otherwise, we’ve got no chance – so, essentially, it would take a retirement or a collision for Lando."
Despite the disappointing turn of events, which was precipitated by Red Bull's poor weekend at Interlagos — salvaged only by Verstappen's herculean effort to drag his RB21 from the pit lane to the podium in the São Paulo Grand Prix — Marko is pleased with the progress made.
"Of course, we’re not happy about being behind, but the positive thing for us is that over the course of the season, we managed to turn things around – and so dramatically that we suddenly found ourselves back in the title fight," the Austrian added in reference to the transformation the six-time constructors' champions have enjoyed under the leadership of Laurent Mekies.
"Overall, the situation is therefore positive."
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Steps into the unknown
The final triple header of the F1 campaign sees the paddock travel to Las Vegas, before ending the year in Abu Dhabi, via the extra-points weekend in Qatar.
Marko highlighted how difficult it is to predict which teams — and therefore drivers — can expect stronger rounds and where.
"Assessing the balance of power over the final three tracks isn’t easy, because the days in Formula 1 when a certain circuit particularly suited a certain car are long gone," he explained.
"With Ferrari and Mercedes, daily form plays a big part, and if we can find the right setup, then we’ll be competing at McLaren’s level.
"Still, Las Vegas should theoretically suit us better, with those high-speed sections; Qatar and Abu Dhabi, with their medium-speed corners, should play more to McLaren’s strengths – but again, such assessments don’t carry as much weight as they used to."
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