The 'explosive' Red Bull trait which could allow Max Verstappen to steal 2025 F1 title

The worst-case scenario for McLaren became clear after Sunday's race in Qatar: not eliminating Max Verstappen and Red Bull from the title fight before the season finale in Abu Dhabi. 

The Lusail circuit could rightly be described as McLaren's 'home turf', where the fast sweeps suited the characteristics of the MCL39, often setting a pace its rivals could not match. 

Yas Marina on the other hand, is fundamentally a two-faced track with a dual personality. It is a fast track, especially in the second sector where aerodynamic efficiency (read low drag_ counts for more than vehicle dynamics, whilst the final twisty sector favours corners at nearly 90 degrees.

This is not an obvious strength of the McLaren.

On the other hand, the track tends to represent an ideal hunting ground for Verstappen's RB21.

The Red Bull is slippery in a straight line and excels in its ability to generate energy through the rear tyres in particular, thanks to its set-up, although this does tend to induce understeer in rapid changes of direction. 

It allows for solid rear stability and almost explosive mechanical traction when exiting slow corners. This is a treasure trove for Verstappen. 

Tyre degradation will not be a major factor, with the focus in practice being for the three title contenders to fine-tune and enhance their cars' relative strengths and minimise the deficiencies, and also remaining flexible on strategic options.

This is not something McLaren considered in Lusail, but it cannot do so at Yas Marina, lest risking a bitter end to the season with the RB21, on paper, at least holding the advantage.

The article continues below. 

Red Bull's RB21

The RB21 is a car that has made aerodynamic efficiency and traction its strengths, once the design limitations highlighted at the beginning of the year were overcome.

McLaren's MCL39

McLaren, on the other hand, has based all its strength on extreme vehicle dynamics, based above all on the originality of the front suspension geometry, which was impossible for its rivals to replicate during the season.