'Notorious pessimist' Toto Wolff highlights Mercedes 'missed trick' risk

Toto Wolff has underlined the jeopardy facing Mercedes — and by extension other F1 teams — ahead of the new season getting underway.

The 2026 campaign will see all-new chassis and power unit regulations, with the significantly altered rulebook set to shake up the F1 pecking order.

Heading into the year, Mercedes is expected to be a frontrunner, in no small part due to how the Brackley-based squad aced the transition to turbo-hybrid power units when the engine rules last changed in 2014.

It set the silver arrows up for eight consecutive constructors' championships, with the chassis side of the team also delivering to a high standard.

Whilst the team faltered during the contemporary ground-effects era, which began in 2022, the expectation throughout the F1 paddock is that Mercedes will return to championship contention. 

The team has insisted that speculation of this kind has not originated from within, and, at this stage, the rumour mill is purely relative and academic.

And Wolff is acutely aware of the risks facing the teams. When asked in his end-of-season review whether his team will be strong in 2026, he replied: "Well, I would very much hope so.

"But I'm a notorious pessimist, and the glass is always half empty rather than half full. And we've set ourselves targets on the power unit and the same on the chassis.

"Whether those targets were ambitious enough, whether we have missed the trick, whether our execution is going to be as faultless as it should be, I don't know."

The name of the game

Recent speculation suggests Mercedes, along with Red Bull, may have exploited a loophole in the power unit regulations, which could see those teams initially on the front foot.

However, a protest is expected, which would likely trigger a technical directive from the FIA if they have taken advantage of a grey area in the regulations.

And whilst reliability will be the principal focus of the private test in Barcelona, and the two official pre-season tests, the Austrian does believe the competitive picture will begin to become clear quickly.

"We're going to see some glimpses of performance balance in testing, in late January, and then in Bahrain, obviously," he added.

Despite that, Wolff agrees with Ferrari boss Fred Vasseur's stance that the upgrade race across the year will be the most crucial aspect in determining who comes out on top.

"But I think the name of the game is going to be the constant development of the tools throughout the season," said the 53-year-old.