Lewis Hamilton F1 retirement decision pinned to one key factor

Former Haas team principal Guenther Steiner has claimed Lewis Hamilton will retire from F1 when he realises he cannot win an eighth drivers' championship at Ferrari.

The Briton joined the Scuderia from Mercedes ahead of the 2025 season, ending an extremely fruitful 12-year stint with the Brackley-based squad that brought six of his seven titles and eight constructors' crowns, making it the most successful partnership in F1 history.

However, his maiden campaign with Ferrari proved disastrous, finishing sixth in the drivers' championship without a single podium finish, marking the worst season of his career.

Hamilton has shown improved form in 2026, securing a podium in Shanghai and sitting fifth in the championship with 51 points after four races. Yet Steiner believes the 41-year-old's future in the sport hinges entirely on his championship prospects.

"It's a difficult one," he told casino.org when asked if this campaign will be Hamilton's last. "I think he's doing pretty good this season. But I must say last year was very difficult for him. It was difficult for Ferrari as well.

"There was a lot of pressure bringing the seven-time world champion in, the GOAT [greatest of all time] in, and he was not performing."

Steiner, who departed Haas in January 2024 after eight years as team principal, suggested Hamilton no longer has anything to prove but remains driven by the desire to secure a record-breaking eighth title.

"This year, it seems he has started the season a lot better," he added. "But I think the question of how long he stays in F1 depends on how much success he wants to have, because he doesn't have to prove anything to anybody anymore. He only wants to prove to himself that he can still do it."

The Italian singled out one scenario which will prompt the 105-time grand prix winner to call time on his illustrious career.

Steiner said: "At some stage, he will say he's had enough of this, but I think when he realises that he cannot win the eighth world championship in a Ferrari, that is when he will say, 'I want to stop', and that's when a seat will open up for [Oliver] Bearman."