Is Ferrari set to end Mercedes' unbeaten season in Monaco?

Ferrari's SF-26 has been the cornering benchmark of the 2026 season. At a circuit where top speed counts for nothing, that could be the decisive factor in the Monaco Grand Prix.

Monaco is unique on the calendar in many ways, but this year it carries an additional distinction: it is the only race in 2026 where the new active aerodynamics system will be entirely disabled. 

The FIA requires each Straight Mode zone to last at least three seconds, and Monaco's layout simply does not offer a straight long enough to meet that threshold. 

Cars will run with fixed wings all weekend, removing any drag-reduction advantage and placing an even greater premium on raw cornering performance. That should suit Ferrari perfectly.

Across the opening five rounds, the SF-26 has been widely acknowledged as having the strongest chassis on the grid. Rival teams, including McLaren and Red Bull, have pointed to Ferrari's exceptional mechanical and aerodynamic grip, particularly through medium- and high-speed corner sequences. After the Australian Grand Prix, Lando Norris described the SF-26's cornering speed as "unbelievable."

Ferrari's main deficit to championship leaders Mercedes has been on the straights, where the Silver Arrows has enjoyed a 15-20 km/h top-speed advantage on the longest sectors. 

At Monaco, that advantage evaporates. There are no straights worthy of the name, and the entire lap is essentially one continuous sequence of braking, traction and rotation zones.

Mercedes have built their lead largely on straight-line efficiency, precisely the area Monaco neutralises. McLaren are a genuine threat, with strong cornering and low tyre degradation. Red Bull have openly acknowledged weaknesses in low-speed traction, making this arguably its worst circuit.

The stars appear to be aligning for Ferrari, but one mistake at the wrong moment can undo every theoretical advantage.

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