Where Max Verstappen will challenge McLaren dominance - and influence the F1 title fight

The Italian Grand Prix turned out to be something of a surprise, as McLaren's dominance - clearly demonstrated just a week earlier at Zandvoort - was broken by Max Verstappen’s pole position and subsequent victory.

On the eve of the round at Monza, such an outcome seemed unlikely, particularly the overall performance of the RB21, which featured a new floor available exclusively to the Dutchman.

The upcoming Azerbaijan Grand Prix this weekend could once again present a scenario similar to that seen at the Temple of Speed, with McLaren potentially less competitive than on other circuits, while the RB21 may once again benefit from its enhanced aerodynamic efficiency - thanks largely to its new floor.

According to statements made by Laurent Mekies in Monza, this component should also be available to Yuki Tsunoda in the second car, thereby increasing the team’s chances of securing a solid haul of points.

Baku is a circuit defined by its long main straight, which favours a low-downforce configuration, despite the more technical section that winds through the old town.

Many teams tend to run a setup similar to the one used at Monza, although with slight variations in terms of wing profiles or dynamic characteristics such as ride height.

It became clear at the Italian Grand Prix that the modifications made to the RB21 are intended to be permanent for the remainder of the season, with only minor adjustments to adapt the car to the various circuits.

Looking ahead to the races from now until Abu Dhabi, it appears likely that tracks such as Baku, Mexico City, Qatar, and particularly Las Vegas, may once again allow the RB21 to shine - capitalising on its aerodynamic efficiency without exposing its weaker traits, such as reduced responsiveness in tight sections and imprecise balance during direction changes.

On the other hand, it's just as evident that McLaren may demonstrate peak performance at circuits like Austin, Interlagos, Singapore, and Abu Dhabi.

Influencing the championship picture

The recent performance boost of the RB21 has come too late to overturn the standings in the constructors’ championship, though it could help vault Red Bull up from its current lowly fourth place.

However, it could still play a more decisive role in the outcome of the drivers’ title battle between Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris.

Verstappen could well have a significant influence on the title fight in either direction, depending on the finishing positions of the two McLaren drivers, adding uncertainty to the final phase of the season.

It’s also important to consider that mechanical reliability will play an equally crucial role. As seen with Norris in Zandvoort, component rotation within the power unit could prove decisive for both drivers.