Mercedes whirlwind exposes Red Bull Achilles heel

Max Verstappen's predictions about F1's pecking order for this season have come true yet again.

Verstappen declared during pre-season testing in Bahrain that people should pay close attention to Mercedes across the Australian Grand Prix weekend, further suggesting that Red Bull's role as favourite would quickly be disproven.

The four-time champion added that Mercedes was playing hide-and-seek, whether or not it was aided by any compression ratio - and that was certainly evident during qualifying.

George Russell and Kimi Antonelli were truly unstoppable. Isack Hadjar finished a strong third on his Red Bull qualifying debut, but he finished eight-tenths of a second adrift, similarly Ferrari's Charles Leclerc.

It is clear after the first qualifying session of the season that Mercedes has a comfortable grasp on the complex regulations at the moment.

Naturally, no one knows whether this will remain the case for the rest of the season due to the development of the cars, which will be particularly aggressive.

The fact is that much needs to happen to keep Mercedes from winning a significant number of races this year. The Silver Arrows has such a significant speed advantage at present that something will have to happen to avoid it perpetually starting and finishing at the front.

Influence of battery

But how does Mercedes differentiate compared to Red Bull, for example? Looking at the data, you can conclude that Red Bull lacks downforce and grip in the corners, highlighted by Hadjar's lower cornering speed.

But the 2026 regulations wouldn't be the 2026 regulations if there were a catch, highlighted by McLaren's Lando Norris, who was almost a second off of Russell's pace in sixth.

"The more speed you have on the straight, the sooner you can lift," he said. "The sooner you lift, the more power you have and the longer you can keep the throttle on. So it's give and take."

He added: "When you go fast through a corner, you can roll longer, you spend more time off the throttle, but you still come out of the corner quickly, and you have more battery left.

"So the better the car is, the better you can use the battery, and the bigger that difference is going to be. So it's not that the car is a second ahead; the car is probably three to four tenths better, and then the engine is also working three to four tenths better."

Mercedes has built such a good engine and car that it can optimise its entire package over a lap, even in tandem with the battery's limitations.

Red Bull is encountering issues in that area, which is unsurprising after building its own PU for the first time. The biggest gains can still be achieved through corner speed and battery optimisation.

All in all, the Milton Keynes-based team will be satisfied with its current position and ability to keep pace with Ferrari and McLaren.

However, there is still a lot of work to be done to become the benchmark and realise its ambition of being champions again, but with its own power unit.

From the glimpse of what we have seen so far in Melbourne, Mercedes has delivered a significant early blow and will take some catching.

Check out Mercedes and Hadjar's data from Q3 in Australia below.