Johnny Herbert issues 'gut feeling' verdict as major Red Bull and Ferrari questions raised

Former F1 driver Johnny Herbert has revealed that his "gut feeling" is that "Mercedes look strong" ahead of the 2026 season, but that he is not counting out Red Bull and Ferrari.

The Silver Arrows have been backed by many as the early favourites going into the new power unit regulations, largely because of how dominant they were when the turbo-hybrid era was introduced.

Mercedes secured eight consecutive constructors' titles from 2014 to 2021 before the ground-effect cars were introduced, when its dominance came to an abrupt halt. It completed a staggering 502 laps across the recent five-day Barcelona shakedown test, the most of any F1 team.

However, Ferrari also looked promising and are known to be introducing several new parts in the first three-day Bahrain test. Lewis Hamilton set the quickest lap in Barcelona, while the Scuderia set the second-most laps.

Red Bull also cannot be overlooked, in Herbert's eyes, with its new power unit having caught the attention of many in the paddock during the official shakedown, including George Russell.

For Red Bull and Ferrari, major questions hang over both teams. For Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar's outfit, it remains to be seen how it will cope as its own engine supplier, while Ferrari's task is to convert testing performance into genuine race and qualifying pace.

Assessing how each team is currently looking, Herbert told RacingNews365 during an interview: "I think it's too early to say where everybody is. Some people are going through issues which they're going to have to sort out. I'm sure they've all gone through issues throughout the days of testing that they've done.

"And as always, we won't know until we get to the first race. There's always going to be a little bit of the unknown. The rumours have been that it's Mercedes again, because they're just doing laps and laps and laps and laps.

"But then so was Red Bull, who have actually done very, very well too. So yeah, we don't know. I think there are going to be the likes of Mercedes, who I'm sure have prepared very, very strongly for this.

"But it's also going to come down to how Red Bull are able to adapt with that power unit, and how Ferrari have, potentially — as they always seem to be — put themselves in a position to return to winning ways, but it never quite happens.

"And remember last year — I think the last two years, especially last year — they [Ferrari] ended up being second quickest in testing, and then it never really came to anything during the season. So testing is always a difficult one, but my gut feeling would be I still think probably Mercedes look strong."