Fred Vasseur makes firm prediction following radical F1 changes

Ferrari boss Fred Vasseur has predicted that F1 will see greater field convergence in 2026, and that a team at the back "could be faster" as the year goes on. 

With the new 2026 technical regulations, the field spread and time delta between the 11 teams is expected to rise as some teams enjoy stronger starts than others.

Over the course of a rules cycle, this then allows teams which started towards the rear of the field to climb up the order, whilst the original fast-starters plateau in performance due to the law of diminishing returns.

In 2025, the final year of the ground effects rules, Williams scored two podiums and 137 points on its way to fifth in the standings, having finished last with just eight points in the first year of the cycle in 2022.

With the field now scattered around again, Ferrari chief Vasseur believes that, owing to the cost cap and aerodynamic testing regulations, it is now easier for teams on the backfoot to turn their performance around quicker.

"I don't have a clear explanation," Vasseur began to tell media, including RacingNews365 , of why the leading teams still have their advantage locked in despite the cost cap and ATR. 

"The convergence of performance will arrive, but it will arrive after seasons and seasons.

"If you look at last year, it was probably the best season in terms of close competition, but it was also after five years of the same regulations, and probably this year, the gap will be a bit bigger.

"But we'll have some convergence, and I am sure that during the season, you will have a team catch-up who are today at the back, and they could be even faster. 

"You also have the allowance of wind-tunnel time, which is making a difference during the season. 

"I am sure that even if you start with different potential and lap-time, we will have convergence quite soon."