F1 facing '80% chance' jeopardy in Monaco GP which could throw huge spanner in the works

Pirelli's head of motorsport has highlighted the 80 per cent probability of a safety car intervening in the Monaco Grand Prix, a factor that could upend what is otherwise expected to be a straightforward one-stop race.

Dario Marrafuschi outlined the likely tyre strategies for a clean race at the Circuit de Monaco, but was clear that disruption remains far more likely than not around the unforgiving streets.

"Talking about strategies in Monaco is always tricky, because we know this is a track with an 80 per cent chance of safety cars, so quite often we see neutralisations [of the race]," Marrafuschi told media, including RacingNews365.

"But in case of a clean race, we clearly expect one pit stop race with the soft to medium [tyre compound] option.

"The second option, closer by a few seconds, would be soft to hard, and the third option, medium-hard.

"We expect that the drivers will start the race with the soft tyre to get the extra grip from the grid to turn into Saint Devote [Turn 1] in the best position.

"So, from our perspective, we did not anticipate any surprises during this race... everything is going as expected."

What tyres are left, and what could a safety car change?

This is where the jeopardy really lies. The top 10 from Saturday's qualifying, headed by polesitter Kimi Antonelli, each have four used soft tyres and one new set apiece of the medium and hard compounds. That leaves little room for creativity in a clean race.

Those who missed out on Q3, however, retain a fresh set of softs. That unused rubber could prove advantageous off the line, offering superior grip into Saint Devote and through the opening laps, a factor not to be underestimated at a venue where track position is everything because of how notoriously difficult it is to overtake.

Should a safety car appear, the strategic picture changes entirely. A well-timed neutralisation could hand some drivers a free pit stop, allowing them to switch compounds without losing significant time — and that is where those who started further down the order have more options.