Why Rafael Camara to Haas could spell disaster for Oliver Bearman

Rafael Camara's rise towards a 2027 Haas seat threatens to complicate would-be team-mate Oliver Bearman's path to Ferrari.

The American-owned outfit is working through its evaluation of Esteban Ocon's potential replacement, with the Frenchman having confirmed at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix that he is in the shop window for next season.

"At the moment, I'm definitely a free agent for next year," Ocon said in Baku. "There are things in discussions that are out of my control. There are certain topics that are out of my control. I will keep pushing until the end of the year and see how it goes."

Asked if staying with Haas remains an option for him, the one-time grand prix winner replied: "Let's see."

The current favourite to step into that vacancy, if Ocon leaving does transpire, is Camara, the 2025 F3 champion who leads this year's F2 standings with Invicta Racing.

With one hand on a second successive support paddock championship, the Brazilian is now in direct competition with Haas reserve driver Jack Doohan, as Leonardo Fornaroli and Ryo Hirakawa have been ruled out as Ocon alternatives.

And Haas team principal Ayao Komatsu has confirmed the selection process is all but complete.

"Soon, within the next couple of weeks," he said of a decision. "We've done all the evaluations. So just waiting to summarise our findings, have a discussion internally, have a chat with Gene [Haas], and then take the final decision."

Notably, Komatsu also stopped short of categorically confirming that Bearman himself will remain at Haas for 2027, a detail that has not gone unnoticed given the swirl of speculation around the Briton's future.

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Two academy drivers, one cockpit

Bearman and Camara are not strangers. Both 21 years of age, they joined the Ferrari Driver Academy together in late 2021, plucked from the FDA Scouting World Finals in Maranello, and have since taken parallel routes through the junior single-seater ladder.

Bearman's, though, moved far quicker, with a F1 seat at Haas arriving in 2025 after his eye-catching Jeddah substitute drive for Ferrari the year before.

Camara has openly credited that trajectory as inspiration. "For sure, it's exciting," he told Sky Sports F1. "Also to see Ollie, from the Academy, and he had the opportunity to go to F1. It gives me the motivation to keep working, to keep improving myself, and hopefully one day maybe I can get also another opportunity."

Flattering as that sentiment is, it also frames the uncomfortable reality Bearman now faces. Should Camara land the Haas seat vacated by Ocon, Ferrari's junior pathway, the same one that funnelled Charles Leclerc — albeit only in free practice outings — and Mick Schumacher through Haas machinery before him, would suddenly house two of its own prospects in identical cars.

Whoever comes out on top in that fight would surely become the flag-bearer for a seat at the Scuderia once Lewis Hamilton eventually decides to walk away from F1.

Komatsu, meanwhile, insists the arrangement causes him no discomfort. "It doesn't really matter to me at all," the Haas boss said.

"We really want two fast drivers because that's the best way to grow this team. It doesn't matter if it's two Ferrari drivers or two Toyota drivers or two McLaren drivers... Honestly, it doesn't matter. Whoever is the fastest, that's the best one."

The Aston Martin sidebar

Notably, Komatsu also stopped short of categorically confirming that Bearman himself will remain at Haas for 2027, a detail that has not gone unnoticed given the swirl of speculation around the Briton's future.

There has been chatter in recent months about contact between Bearman's father and Aston Martin, with the elder Bearman reportedly spotted on a couple of occasions around the team's operation.

The suspicion in the paddock is that this is being used as leverage tied to Fernando Alonso's situation at Aston Martin: for as long as Alonso's own future is not formally locked down, Bearman's camp can appear to be flirting with the idea of an alternative home.

The reading of that manoeuvre is that it is designed to pressure Ferrari into guaranteeing Bearman an unshakeable priority claim on a 2028 seat, with the implicit threat being that he could walk away from the Ferrari pathway altogether if that assurance is not forthcoming. 

That, in turn, may explain why Komatsu was unwilling to give Bearman a categorical confirmation for 2027 at this stage.

Bearman can't afford to stand still

But assuming he stays put at Haas, Komatsu's allegiance agnostic stance could be precisely the problem for Bearman, as it does not rule Camara out on account of their shared ties.

And a straight team-mate battle against a highly-rated academy stablemate, rather than an established outsider like Ocon, raises the stakes significantly.

Outperform Camara convincingly and Bearman strengthens his Ferrari case. Get beaten by him, or not handsomely enough, and the narrative shifts: the heir apparent usurped by the rookie just through the door.

Bearman has been careful not to sound complacent about his position. "Ferrari is the dream team," he said. "My goal remains to be a Ferrari driver one day. But I don't want to be sitting around for three, four, five years waiting for a seat."

He has also had to field questions over Red Bull's reported interest, after Sky Sports F1's David Croft revealed in July that the Milton Keynes-based squad is monitoring him as a long-term option should Max Verstappen ever depart.

Bearman played it down at the time, and the four-time F1 drivers' champion has since extended his stay until 2030, but it is good to know there are options out there.

"It's quite flattering to hear things like that, with a team like Red Bull who are incredibly successful, and to be connected with them in any way, even if it's just rumours, is very nice," Bearman said at the time. "But, as I said, it's just rumours, and I'm fully focused on what I'm doing here with Haas at the moment."

On his immediate prospects, the 21-year-old has been candid about the uncertainty. "Regarding my future, there is no conversation," he said. "I just drive the car. I think the rest will sort itself out if I perform at a good level."

That lack of clarity, paired with Charles Leclerc's long-term extension and Hamilton's continued competitiveness, already left Bearman with a narrow window at Maranello.

Adding an internal rival with Camara's pedigree at Haas, which Ferrari has actively financed through TPC mileage, only tightens it further.

The Doohan alternative

There is, however, a scenario that would ease the pressure.

Jack Doohan, Haas's reserve driver since leaving Alpine, has already completed TPC running at Jerez alongside Ryo Hirakawa and Sho Tsuboi — neither of whom are in contention for the seat — as part of the same evaluation programme.

Handing the Australian the Ocon vacancy would keep Ferrari's junior queue exactly as it stands, with Bearman as the sole representative in a race seat and no immediate internal threat to his development.

Much of the paddock already treats the outcome as settled, with Camara assumed to be a done deal. Yet Komatsu was not being disingenuous when he said the decision has not actually been made.

Part of what is happening is that Ferrari's own lobbying effort is helping spread the impression that the matter is already concluded, even as Haas insists the final call is still to come.

But given the Scuderia's commercial and technical grip on Haas, through engine supply, gearboxes and listed components, two Ferrari juniors in the team is an outcome that cannot be ruled out.

And with Camara supposedly topping the evaluation shortlist and Ferrari team principal Fred Vasseur understood to be personally backing his preparation, the more convenient option for Bearman may not be the one Haas ultimately takes.