Why Christian Horner's best hope of an F1 return is to stay away

Immediately after the bombshell news broke earlier this year that Christian Horner had been sacked by Red Bull as team principal and CEO, and the articles had been written, videos recorded, and Helmut Marko's few words published, everybody's favourite guessing game began.

Where would Horner end up next?

It was not as straightforward as him turning up at the Belgian Grand Prix sporting new team gear. He still had to come to a settlement with Red Bull over his contract and then serve a period of gardening leave, usually the best part of a year for a senior figure such as Horner.

In late September, it was confirmed that he had received an eight-figure sum somewhere north of £50 million, and had formally cut all ties with Red Bull, bringing to an end a glorious 20-year spell in which he had transformed a fizzy energy drink racing team into one of the all-time great F1 marques.

Crucially, in announcing Horner's formal departure on the day after the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, Red Bull revealed that a period of nine months' gardening leave had been agreed, and was back-dated to July 9, 2025 - the day Horner's sacking was announced, although he had been informed the evening prior. 

That means Horner is free to work for another team in F1 from April 9, 2025, but finding one, even for a team principal as successful as he is, will be a challenge.

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Horner's potential comeback

Come 2026, there will be 11 teams on the grid once Cadillac formally joins, but at least six of these can be ruled out as potential destinations for Horner, if, indeed, he wants to return simply as a team principal. 

But it is believed that he has set his sights higher, on potentially becoming a team owner.

Red Bull and Racing Bulls are not going to re-hire the person they sacked nine months before, and to whom they paid a rather healthy amount of money. 

Horner is not going to go to McLaren, given the personal animosity between him and Zak Brown, which ignited when McLaren Racing's CEO wrote a letter to the FIA after Red Bull was found to have breached the 2021 cost cap, saying, without naming Red Bull, that an overspend by any team would "constitute cheating".

That led to a rather awkward team principal's press conference in the United States, where Horner gave a passionate defence of his team, whilst Brown looked on with a face that would do thunder an understatement. 

Williams boss James Vowles firmly ruled out Horner as an option in Azerbaijan, and given the legacy of the bitter 2021 feud, there is more chance of Lord Lucan being found riding Shergar than Horner working with Toto Wolff at Mercedes.

Haas's Ayao Komatsu revealed an approach from Horner for a more senior role than team principal in Baku, but that "nothing has gone any further".

Komatsu also added that he was not "going to fuel the story" any more of Horner seeking a higher role than team principal, but equally, it's not a firm denial, like Vowles, of saying, 'No room at the inn, guv."

Aston Martin team principal and CEO Andy Cowell revealed in Baku that Horner had been "ringing everybody" to seek a route back into F1, but there were "no plans" to bring him in. 

It is unlikely Ferrari will be an option for Horner, considering he would have to move to Italy and potentially his family to Maranello. 

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Horner 'not a billionaire'

If Horner wants to move into an ownership role, the first thing he is going to need to do is find some backers.

Yes, he is newly minted, but these deep pockets are merely a drop in the ocean required to buy a Formula 1 team.

He is not a billionaire like Lawrence Stroll. 

So, leading a consortium would be his best bet if he wanted to follow that route, but that would be the long-term plan, over several years. Finding and raising that sort of money to buy a team is not the work of a nine-month gardening leave, no matter how well-connected Horner is.

But in the short term, Horner needs to find a way back into F1, even if it is as a team principal or racing director, and to do that, he should keep his powder dry. 

Given the huge scale of the 2026 regulations overhaul, some teams will get it badly wrong, and as such, team principal changes should not be ruled out, as Horner discovered when Red Bull booted him out, and that when it comes to performance, the buck stops with the team principal.

Essentially, if Horner keeps himself on the edge, peering in but not drawing attention to himself, next spring, he could find himself as an effective 'gun for hire' and give Team X a boost after a poor start to the season. 

There are far worse options out there than Horner, who can be prickly and aggressive, but as Red Bull found out,  he is someone capable of building and rebuilding teams to challenge for a world championship.