Why a shock Verstappen Red Bull exit is unlikely for now

Max Verstappen has been a huge talking point ahead of the upcoming 2025 Formula 1 season, with the Dutchman chasing a fifth consecutive drivers' title. 

The four-time world champion has been rumoured several times with a shock Red Bull exit, before his contract expires at the end of 2028. 

Verstappen has been linked to both Aston Martin and Mercedes in the past 12 months, with the former having appeared again during the winter break. 

Pre-season testing in Bahrain did not diminish the speculation, as a result of Red Bull having struggled at the Bahrain International Circuit. 

It looks set to be a difficult start to the season for the Austrian outfit, something Verstappen recently predicted at a Viaplay event attended by RacingNews365.

McLaren appear to be the team to beat for victory in the Australian Grand Prix, with Red Bull needing to solve issues with the RB21. 

Problems for Red Bull result in Verstappen's future being placed further under a magnifying glass. 

Whilst, as mentioned, Verstappen is contracted until 2028, keeping the 27-year-old will be hugely challenging should winning become too difficult at Red Bull. 

In addition, concerns remain around Red Bull's powertrains for the new power unit regulations being introduced next year. From 2026, Red Bull will produce its own power units, something it has never done before. 

Unlike Mercedes and Ferrari, Red Bull is not a renowned F1 engine builder, resulting in the general expectation that next year will not be kind to the Milton Keynes-based team. All of this further fuels speculation of Verstappen departing the team.

Verstappen transfer hot air

For now, Verstappen leaving is unlikely. Ultimately, it depends on Red Bull's developments this season, both in regard to its 2025 car but also its challenger for next year. 

Red Bull starting the new season behind McLaren is not disastrous, should improvements to the RB21 be made through relevant upgrades. 

As proven last year, a large upgrades package can propel a team forwards, as was the case with McLaren. 

Quick results in the factory are required by Red Bull in order for either the drivers' or constructors' titles to be possible, given the growing focus on 2026. 

Minimal upgrades are expected by any team in the second half of this year, giving Red Bull just a few months to make the RB21 a title-winning car. 

This in itself puts additional pressure on the team. If upgrades do not work in the opening rounds of the season, then it will leave Red Bull with no option but to switch its focus to 2026, sacrificing 2025. 

So much depends on Red Bull developing a strong power unit next year, as Verstappen himself will likely draw conclusions should it not be competitive. 

Verstappen is loyal to Red Bull, but if he can no longer win races, that could sway him to join a rival.

Verstappen signals

Currently, there are no concrete signs that Verstappen leaving Red Bull is imminent. Last year, during the team's difficulties with the RB20, he expressed his confidence in the outfit to turn things around. 

A poor pre-season is unlikely to change Verstappen's view, given he has been with the company since 2014. 

On top of that, there is no guarantee that Mercedes or Aston Martin will have a seat available for the reigning world champion. 

Whilst George Russell and Kimi Antonelli are only contracted until the end of this season, Mercedes boss Toto Wolff has hinted that both have clauses to continue. 

If Verstappen was to leave Red Bull, there is still a lot that would need to change. The simplest way for Red Bull to end all rumours of its star driver leaving is to give him a competitive car. 

Failure to do that will simply intensify the speculation.