Max Verstappen finds himself in a remarkably similar position to Kimi Raikkonen's legendary championship comeback in 2007, with the statistical parallels between the two campaigns proving eerily precise.
With six races remaining in the 2025 season, which is 25% of the campaign, Verstappen trails Oscar Piastri by 63 points, sitting on 273 to the Australian's 336.
This deficit represents 81.3% of the leader's tally, slightly more than in Raikkonen's situation with four rounds left — 24% of the schedule — in 2007, when the Finn had accumulated 74 points against Lewis Hamilton's 92, which equates to 80.4% of the British driver's points at that stage.
The maths offers genuine cause for optimism at Red Bull and in the Dutchman's camp. Not only was Raikkonen in a worse position with technically less of the calendar remaining, Verstappen's 63-point gap represents just 36% of the 174 points still available across the remaining six races and three sprint weekends.
Raikkonen faced a steeper challenge, needing to overcome a deficit worth 42.5% of the available points when he trailed Hamilton by 17 with only 40 points on offer.
Interestingly, without the three sprint weekends, Verstappen would need to claw back a shortfall of 42% of the remaining points up for grabs, which would be almost identical to the Ferrari champion's deficit.
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Why Verstappen's position is actually stronger
The four-time F1 drivers' champion enjoys several advantages that the Finnish driver did not have 18 years ago.
The 2025 points structure awards significantly more per race victory, creating larger potential swings with each result.
Where Raikkonen could gain a maximum of 10 points per race win in 2007, Verstappen can secure up to 33 points on a sprint weekend.
Recent form also favours the Dutchman. Verstappen has finished second or better in his last four outings, demonstrating the RB21's return to competitiveness.
After Singapore, he emphasised his satisfaction with the team's progress, stating: "We do understand the car a lot better, we have definitely improved in the last few races."
The Raikkonen template
Raikkonen's recovery remains one of Formula 1's greatest comebacks. After trailing by 17 points with just two races remaining, he mounted an extraordinary charge.
Victories in China and Brazil, combined with Hamilton's costly error in Shanghai, transformed what appeared impossible into championship glory by a single point.
The Ferrari driver's triumph proved that substantial deficits could be overturned when the leader stumbles under pressure.
Hamilton's China disaster, where both McLaren drivers faltered dramatically, opened the door for Raikkonen's decisive strike.
Verstappen now requires similar good fortune. With Piastri leading by a seemingly comfortable margin, the championship maths suggest the Australian need only maintain consistency to secure his maiden title.
Yet, if Raikkonen's precedent teaches anything, it is that F1 titles are never truly decided until the final flag falls.
And there is another similarity that can further provide Verstappen with confidence: In 2007, the Ferrari driver was fighting against two McLarens, with Fernando Alonso just three points behind Hamilton with four rounds to run.
The Red Bull driver finds himself in the same scenario, with both Piastri and Lando Norris at risk of taking points from one another.
The comparison offers genuine hope for Verstappen's campaign, proving that even the most unlikely recoveries remain within reach.
The maths for this article were based on a tweet from @SpannersReady, host of The Missed Apex Podcast, on X.
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