The reoccurring Mexico Formula E coincidence looking for fourth strike

Coincidences occur every now and then in motorsport – just look at Formula 1 and last year’s season-opening race in Australia.

Believe it or not, the order of the top five after the first lap at Albert Park was exactly the same as the top five in the F1 drivers’ championship at the end of 2025.

Formula E has perhaps one of the most extraordinary coincidences occurring again and again. In fact, this particular coincidence has occurred over the last three seasons.

Remarkably, the winner of each of the last three Mexico City E-Prixs has gone on to become world champion that campaign. Three seasons ago it was Andretti’s Jake Dennis; two seasons ago, Porsche’s Pascal Wehrlein; and last season, Nissan’s Oliver Rowland.

This coincidence is once again a talking point as Formula E returns to Mexico City for the 10th time this weekend, for the second round of its 12th season – the season-opener took place at the start of December in São Paulo.

The Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez and its iconic Foro Sol stadium are major fan and championship favourites, with it near-impossible to find somebody who dislikes the event.

It is also a milestone race for Formula E, as Saturday will mark its 150th E-Prix. Given the reoccurring coincidence, one question heading into the weekend is whether Mexico will have a decisive say in who becomes world champion for a fourth season in succession.

That question will not be answered until the season-ending double-header in London this August, although a loose estimation can already be made.

The likely Mexico City victory contenders

There is a very real possibility that the coincidence could strike again, given who is expected to be strong in Mexico. When it comes to Mexico City and the Gen3 era, it is difficult not to label the Porsche-powered teams as favourites.

Wehrlein has secured back-to-back poles for the factory Porsche squad, and while Rowland won last season’s race, he was joined on the podium by both Wehrlein and former team-mate Antonio Felix da Costa.

In the first two visits to Mexico during the Gen3 era, the opening race was won by Dennis in his Andretti-coloured customer Porsche, while Wehrlein claimed victory in the second. In total, across the last three seasons, five Porsches have featured on the Foro Sol podium.

Having won in Brazil, Dennis will be expected to fight for victory this weekend, while Wehrlein – backed by recent statistics – has proven himself something of a Mexico City master. Rowland also cannot be ruled out, having looked competitive in the season opener, where he finished second. All three are undoubtedly title contenders.

A non-Porsche or Rowland victory in Mexico would come as a major surprise – could Mahindra or Nick Cassidy spoil the party? If one of Wehrlein, Dennis or Rowland wins, you could argue that a chocolate coin could be placed on who will become world champion. But then again, this is Formula E.

What may be more realistic than the Mexico City coincidence striking for a fourth consecutive time is that Formula E will crown a second two-time champion at the conclusion of London. Based on the likely title contenders, it would take Dan Ticktum, Edoardo Mortara or Nick Cassidy to win the title for another new champion to be crowned.

Based on most predictions in the paddock, Jean-Éric Vergne will no longer be the only two-time champion – but will he remain the only driver to win back-to-back titles? That is up to Rowland.