The poker game over Max Verstappen's F1 future is in full swing

Officially, Max Verstappen is under contract with Red Bull through the end of 2028, but his contract includes various ways to get out of the deal early. 

This possibility is created by the much-discussed performance-related exit clauses, which give the four-time champion the option to terminate his contract before it expires in over two years' time.

Red Bull’s form in 2026 has been lacking. Verstappen managed to secure just one podium finish in seven races. Verstapppen demands more from his team, something his manager, Raymond Vermeulen, has made clear on multiple occasions. Max is loyal, but his loyalty has its limits.

In theory, Verstappen could leave, but how many serious options does he have? Which team can offer him a solid future, both on the track and financially?

Ferrari: Financially strong, but….

Ferrari always attracts attention due to its history and vast financial resources, but is currently probably the least realistic option for Verstappen. The current driver line-up leaves no room.

Charles Leclerc has extended his contract and is considered the face of Ferrari for the coming years. Lewis Hamilton seems reborn this season and has a contract with an option for at least one more season. The Brit has made every hint that he will not be hanging up his racing boots anytime soon.

That makes a scenario in which Verstappen moves to Maranello unlikely as Ferrari has no reason to dismantle its current lineup.

McLaren: The most spectacular option

Earlier this week, British media reported that McLaren would be willing to offer Verstappen a salary of £80 million per season, which would immediately rank among the largest contracts in the history of the sport.

In that scenario, Oscar Piastri would make the move to Red Bull, especially since his manager, Mark Webber, is said to have become somewhat less enthusiastic about McLaren. This would create an opening at McLaren alongside Lando Norris. 

Verstappen would also be reunited with long-time race engineer Gianpiero Lambiase at the British team, with GP due to make the switch in 2028.

From a sporting perspective, McLaren’s appeal is evident. The team is the double reigning champion, and although Mercedes and Ferrari currently have the upper hand in the order, the team is stable, and the MCL40 demonstrates that the foundation for the coming years has been well laid. 

Whether the team is truly willing to take such a financial risk, and whether a Verstappen/Norris duo is viable in practice, remains a big unknown.

Mercedes: Ambition vs internal dilemma

Mercedes has long been considered a serious option, especially in light of the new engine regulations, under which the racing team and engine supplier have got off to a very strong start. Yet this scenario also faces two significant obstacles.

The first obstacle is internal. Kimi Antonelli has emerged as an important piece for the future of the team.

Mercedes has invested in his development for years and positions the 19-year-old Italian as the future of the racing team. Driving alongside him is George Russell, who, like Antonelli, was nurtured through Mercedes' junior programme.

Verstappen’s arrival would completely upend those internal dynamics. The Dutchman has systematically outshone his team-mates in the past. Drivers like Pierre Gasly and Liam Lawson saw their reputations suffer significant damage when compared to Verstappen. Mercedes will seriously consider whether it is wise to manoeuvre Antonelli, its most cherished talent, into that same position.

The second obstacle is financial. Verstappen’s salary demands are of a magnitude that would disrupt the internal balance of virtually any team. Whether Mercedes is willing and able to foot that bill is far from a given.

In addition, Verstappen wants a lot of freedom: minimal PR obligations, plenty of room to race in GT3s, and who knows, maybe even Le Mans. Can Mercedes accommodate that? And does Verstappen always fit the “well-behaved” image of the German manufacturer?
 

Red Bull: The most familiar, yet most uncertain path

The most obvious choice is also the most complicated. Red Bull is facing a fundamental transition: for the first time, it has built its own power unit. That’s an ambitious project, but it also carries risks that Verstappen can assess better than anyone.

The technical organisation has undergone drastic changes recently. A number of prominent figures have left the team, and Red Bull hasn’t always been able to replace them with equally high-profile talent. Is the team strong enough to compete for the title in the coming years? Verstappen will also have expectations regarding the technical (management) structure.

But the other side of the coin is also clear. Verstappen enjoys an exceptional position at Red Bull, both financially and personally. He is given leeway for his activities outside of Formula 1, including his passion for endurance racing. That kind of freedom is by no means a given at every team.

Rumours in the paddock suggest that Red Bull is exploring whether the performance-related exit clauses in Verstappen’s contract can be bought out, so that both parties can commit to each other for a longer period. Everyone knows that this step is almost necessary for Red Bull. 

Without Verstappen, the team risks falling back into the lower mid-pack, which not only has sporting consequences but also affects its appeal to sponsors and staff.
 

Aston Martin and the rest

The other teams are essentially irrelevant in this story. Financially, Verstappen’s salary demands are unattainable for most teams, while the racing prospects are equally unappealing.

For a long time, Aston Martin was an exception to that rule. The new factory, the state-of-the-art wind tunnel, and the arrival of Adrian Newey as team principal painted an ambitious picture of the future. The team dared to secretly dream of having a great champion in its ranks.

However, the AMR26 shows that the leap to the very top is still a long way off. As long as Aston Martin operates closer to the lower midfield than to the podium, it remains an unrealistic destination for a four-time world champion.

The poker game thus narrows down to four names: Red Bull, Mercedes, McLaren, and, to a lesser extent, Ferrari. When the cards are finally laid on the table depends on the next moves in the poker game surrounding Verstappen.