The dilemma facing Verstappen and Red Bull in McLaren Belgian fight

During the first free practice session of the Belgian Grand Prix, Max Verstappen threw down the challenge to his rivals. 

The Red Bull driver dominated the session, ending nearly half-a-second clear, but in the second session, he came back to earth with a McLaren-sized thump as Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri ended one-two.

Norris was 0.215s faster than Piastri with Verstappen a further 0.002s down in third, with Norris crucially a tenth faster in the twisty second sector on the qualifying simulations. 

On the long straight-line blasts of sector one and three, the two are pretty level, with top speeds also similar, Norris clocking in one kph slower than Verstappen's 338kph. 

View the qualifying runs of Norris and Verstappen in the second free practice session below. The text continues after that.

What of the race runs?

On the long runs in FP2, Verstappen was slightly less consistent than he was in FP1, with Norris and Piastri clipping at his heels.

A start on the mediums of a 1:48.8 quickly became a 1:50.4 just four laps later, with Piastri consistently in the 1:49 range, with the Australian and his British McLaren team-mate (who completed his entire run on softs) again quicker.

The usual fuel load caveats apply, but from the data in the table below, Verstappen's hopes of climbing through the field after his 10-place grid penalty and repeating the trick of winning in both 2022 and 2023 appears short.

Herein lies another problem for Red Bull. 

Does it opt for higher downforce to get a better qualifying position in the expected wet conditions, or does it sacrifice qualifying for race pace? 

View the long runs of Verstappen, Norris and Piastri in the second free practice below!