Juan Pablo Montoya believes internal politics at Red Bull is playing a role as the Milton Keynes-based squad continues to weigh up its driver options for the 2026 F1 season.
The six-time constructors' champion has already delayed making its final call on who will partner Max Verstappen and which drivers will fill both seats at Racing Bulls.
Aside from the Dutchman staying put, the only other certain is that Isack Hadjar will remain with the joint team, but, despite heavy speculation, it is still not ultimately clear if he will step up to the top team.
It leaves Yuki Tsunoda, Liam Lawson and F2 driver Arvid Lindblad vying for the remaining two seats, but Montoya believes the Japanese driver would be on the outside looking in if Red Bull adviser Helmut Marko had unilateral decision-making authority.
Speaking about Tsunoda's prospects on the MontoyAS podcast, he said: "I think there is a small chance [he keeps his seat] because of politics, and I don’t want to talk about it here.
"But it’s not so black and white because if I put it to you like this: if Helmut made the decisions, I would say that 90 per cent he would be out.
"But right now things have changed a bit; they are a little more political. Red Bull Austria, it seems to me, wants to have a little more control over what is happening in the team.
"So now, how the decisions are made and the things that happen are going to change a bit, especially because there are three seats.
"Lindblad goes up for sure; it’s whether Yuki leaves or whether Liam Lawson leaves. Theoretically, that is the plan."
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The 'problem' for Red Bull
It is broadly anticipated that Lindblad will be handed a Racing Bulls drive, as Montoya also believes, and with Hadjar expected to be promoted, it leaves Tsunoda and Lawson in a straight fight for their F1 survival.
The former has struggled since being parachuted in to replace the latter two rounds into the campaign, scoring just 25 points to Verstappen's 305, but he has been a clear step up from what the New Zealander was able to achieve in the opening two weekends of the year.
The 25-year-old is showing signs of progress, and Montoya feels he should be afforded more time to make his case.
"If you look, Yuki has done a good job compared to what Lawson could have done and what everyone in that Red Bull car has done until now," the seven-time grand prix winner stated. "So the work Yuki is doing is not ideal, but he has improved.
"If they give Yuki one more year, I think Yuki will be able to start aligning things. So it wouldn’t be so logical to take him out. And Lawson and Hadjar are finishing in the points, both of them."
If Montoya were making the decision, he would leave things as they are, with Lindblad ultimately not graduating to a full-time F1 seat.
However, the former Williams and McLaren driver conceded it is still most likely Tsunoda who will make way.
"Where Helmut doesn’t have 100 per cent control of the decisions, everything is not so clear," the 50-year-old contended, before expanding on why the politics in the team is a "problem" to remedy.
"If you look at it from the outside, if you take Helmut out of there and look at the results of the four drivers they have for three seats, they deserve to continue. So the problem is that there is a lot of politics and everything.
"On one hand, I think Yuki still has very strong political ties within Red Bull that can keep him there, and on the other hand, everyone still has a bit of a chance there. If they were to take someone out, the most probable would be Yuki."
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