Red Bull has key advantage in hunt for first 2026 F1 win

The first half of the season was a difficult period for Red Bull. 

There were few highlights, many low points, and one constant factor keeping the team afloat: Max Verstappen. 

The RB22 has undergone major changes in the first 11 races, particularly in terms of the sidepod layout. 

Those modifications were aimed at achieving a fundamentally different load distribution and, above all, at finding stability in the middle of the corner - an aspect that has proven to be a persistent problem.

Aerodynamic downforce is the car’s greatest weakness, and its distribution leaves much to be desired. This has become evident time and again in the aerodynamic mappings, with a particularly noticeable deficit at the rear of the car. 

The fact that the additional profiles on the housing of the rear wing’s central actuator were not reserved exclusively for twisty circuits like Monaco, but remained standard in the races that followed, shows that the solution is not straightforward. 

A thorough overhaul of multiple components is necessary, with the floor at the top of the list as the most urgent part.

Article continues below.

Where Red Bull does excel, however, is the engine. The Red Bull-Ford power unit has emerged as the proper competitor among the new 2026 engines. 

The performance of this power unit has even enabled the team to opt for more downforce at some circuits than would have been aerodynamically ideal, simply because the engine could compensate for that choice.

The picture of the season so far is uncomfortably clear. In most races, the team lacks race pace, and even in qualifying, single-lap speed is often insufficient, though that shortcoming is slightly less pronounced at the very highest level. 

Still, it remains an indisputable fact that Red Bull is currently the only top team that has yet to win a race in 2026.

In Austria, the team came close to a win, but Verstappen fell just over a second and a half short and finished second behind winner George Russell. 

To secure that first victory of the season, the Dutchman will likely have to rely on problems among the competition and on differences in development strategy at specific circuits.  

There’s a clear rationale behind this: the performance of the RB22, which has shown some stabilisation in recent races, can be further boosted in the second half of the season through targeted updates, while competitors may not bring new upgrades to those same circuits. 

In that regard, there are opportunities for Red Bull.

However, there is also a catch. The current situation regarding the power unit, specifically the ADUO development opportunities that Mercedes and Ferrari are receiving for their engines, poses a real obstacle to Red Bull’s plans.