McLaren set for potential Japanese GP strategic advantage in key scenario

Pirelli has outlined a one-stop strategy as the quickest option to reach the finish of the Japanese Grand Prix, but McLaren does have a key advantage should one particular scenario unfold.

According to F1’s tyre supplier, while the soft compound is the grippiest off the line, it is better to start on the yellow-walled medium compound.

Pirelli believes the optimum pit window is between laps 15 and 21, before completing the remainder of the grand prix on a set of hard tyres.

Starting on softs and then switching to hards is possible; however, the likely pit window is several laps earlier, between laps 13 and 19.

For those feeling particularly brave, starting on softs and then moving to mediums—rather than hards—is also possible in Pirelli’s view, but it would require significant tyre management.

The optimum strategy is to go from medium to hard, rather than soft to hard, due to the greater flexibility offered by starting on the mediums should a stint need extending.

Based on Pirelli’s data, a two-stop strategy is highly unlikely under normal circumstances, as it would incur an unnecessary 10-second time loss.

Across the weekend, the performance of the medium and hard tyres has been very similar—much closer than predicted—while the soft compound is around six tenths quicker than the medium before dropping off.

However, what could be a game changer in the race is a mid-race safety car, as McLaren is the only team with two sets of new hard tyres for both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri.

This gives McLaren greater flexibility in the event of a safety car or other disruption. By contrast, the drivers of Ferrari and Mercedes have no new soft tyres, one set of new hard tyres, and two sets of new mediums.

Due to being eliminated in the second part of qualifying, Max Verstappen has two new sets of soft tyres and could therefore opt for an aggressive strategy.

Check out the possible strategies below!