Baku low-drag mastery points to one F1 team to fear in Azerbaijan GP

Mercedes arrive in Baku this week after two dominant results at circuits that reward the very qualities the Azerbaijan Grand Prix Circuit demands. This pattern points to Kimi Antonelli and George Russell as the drivers to watch this weekend.

Antonelli won at Monza and again in Spain, two very different layouts unified by one requirement: a car that can carry low drag without bleeding away rear stability.

Baku's 2.2-kilometre start-finish straight is the longest passage of full throttle on the calendar, and under the 2026 power unit rules, with roughly equal contribution from the internal combustion engine and the 350kW electrical system and no MGU-H to smooth deployment, that stretch has become a genuine differentiator rather than a formality.

The Baku layout forces a compromise between straight-line aerodynamic efficiency and enough downforce to rotate through the 90-degree corners and the notoriously tight castle section. That is precisely the trade Mercedes has been winning.

A car that generates efficient underfloor downforce can afford to trim its rear wing more aggressively, gaining top speed on the straight, without sacrificing the traction needed out of the slow corners. The W17 has so far indicated it has that balance nailed. 

Red Bull's form curve tells a similar story from the other direction. Max Verstappen, who struggled before the summer break, has been on the podium in four of the last five races - his home race in Zandvoort aside, where he crashed on lap one - at a variety of very different circuits.

The Dutchman's recent trajectory suggests Red Bull has found something in exactly the window Baku will test during qualifying on Friday and the race on Saturday, given the schedule change.

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McLaren's Piastri problem

McLaren's picture is murkier. Lando Norris has found form of late, winning in Hungary and the Netherlands, whilst he was third in the last race in Madrid, a race he arguably should have won but for an ill-timed virtual safety car intervention.

The MCL40, though, was found wanting at low-downforce Monza, where McLaren was third best behind Mercedes and Ferrari.

Ahead of Baku, McLaren has confirmed a push of engineering resources toward Oscar Piastri's side of the garage, aimed at improving how the car and driver work together.

"We need to execute better and then at the same time we need to get more in tune between Oscar and the MCL40 because still Oscar is driving and thinking," said team principal Andrea Stella.

Stella was also keen to head off suggestions the move was anything other than a technical fix.

"I don't think it has anything to do with any psychological kind of opportunity," he added. "This is purely technical."

Whether that recalibration lands in time for a street circuit as demanding on car feel as Baku is another matter. The castle section, a narrow, wall-lined sequence through the old town, punishes any driver who is not fully synced with the car's front end.

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Braking and energy management wildcard

Beyond outright efficiency, Baku's brutal deceleration zones into Turn 1 and Turn 3, both taken from over 310 km/h after long cooling straights, put thermal management under severe stress.

Teams typically run circuit-specific brake ducts to stop the discs overheating in the stops, and any car with a marginal cooling package could pay for it with fade in the closing laps.

Energy deployment adds another layer of complexity under this year's rules. Teams face conflicting demands over how to deploy electrical power down the long straight without triggering significant clipping before the Turn 1 braking zone, a problem that rewards cars with smarter harvesting rather than simply the most raw power.

Mercedes' strategic planning around Baku has already thrown up a wrinkle. The team is understood to have delayed Russell's tactical engine-related penalty rather than take it this weekend, instead lining the change up with the arrival of the ADUO power unit specification during the Americas triple-header.

Russell was unimpressed when asked about the logic behind it. "It makes zero sense for me," he said.

As for Ferrari, despite delivering a power unit upgrade for its home race at Monza, it still lagged behind Mercedes. Its straight-line speed is a concern, and given the long straight at Baku, it is likely to be found wanting again.

On balance, the case points toward Mercedes as the team best equipped for Baku's demands, with Red Bull's recent upswing the most credible threat.