Ever since Logan Sargeant was benched by James Vowles at the Australian Grand Prix in favour of Alex Albon, his dismissal has seemed a near-certainty.
It is unprecedented in modern times for a team principal to voluntarily withdraw one driver from a grand prix simply because you have doubts over his ability to deliver a points finish. For drivers who retain the confidence of their team principal, it simply does not happen.
The ultimate death-knell for Sargeant's career came at Zandvoort when in torrid FP3 conditions, he stacked the heavily-upgraded FW46, reducing it to a smouldering wreck after driving through the grass and being spat into the barrier.
Put simply, for a driver to wipe months' worth of upgrades down the barrier with a rookie mistake a year-and-a-half into their F1 career was and is inexcusably and appears to have finally given Vowles reason enough for the first performance-related Williams in-season driver swap since Nigel Mansell and David Coulthard in 1994.
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During his 36 races, Sargeant never out-qualified Albon, with Albon having an average grid position of 11.87 to Sargeant's 16.98 with average finishing positions of 11.65 and 16.48, respectively.
Damningly, Sargeant never finished ahead of Albon in any of the 25 races where both drivers were classified, with the American also suffering multiple big accidents including at the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix in addition to his Zandvoort smash.
But that is not to say that Sargeant was a dud all along. In qualifying for the 2023 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, his first lap in Q1 was good enough to reach Q2 for the first time, but a miniscule misjudgment in clipping the pit-entry line had it scrubbed by the stewards.
He then lost his head and span out of the session as it snowballed, with it being somewhat of a surprise that he was kept on for a second season.
The benching in Australia through no fault of his own was the final nail in a coffin, with rumblings almost every race weekend since that a mid-season driver swap was being considered.
Mid-season driver changes
But how well do these actually work out for teams?
Taking three relatively examples, it is something of a mixed bag, with the following examples not including injury replacements so Ollie Bearman and Liam Lawson are not included.
Daniel Ricciardo replaced Nyck de Vries mid-way through the 2023 season at what was then AlphaTauri, and it was up and down.
After two races in Hungary and Belgium to blow away the rust, Ricciardo broke his hand in practice for the Dutch GP, ruling him out until the United States a couple of months later.
He banked a stunning seventh in Mexico City as the high-point, but has since flattered to deceive at what is know RB and his future appears in doubt. For 2025, he could either be at Red Bull, RB or out of F1 altogether, given what happens with Sergio Perez and Lawson.
In late 2017, Toro Rosso agreed to release Carlos Sainz to Renault to replace Jolyon Palmer for the final four races ahead of a full-time deal in '18.
Sainz started well with seventh on debut in Austin, but suffering from rear-instability through his Enstone stay, departed after just a single full season for McLaren - to be replaced by one Ricciardo.
But the kings of mid-season driver swaps are Red Bull Racing.
In 2016, ahead of the Spanish GP, it swapped Danill Kvyat back to Toro Rosso and Max Verstappen up to the senior team, whilst three years later, Pierre Gasly was given the boot in the summer break in place of rookie Albon.
Verstappen's sudden promotion - which history has proven the right call - and the Gasly/Albon swap were ruthless decision by a team hellbent on winning and having the best equipment possible in its cars.
Mid-season driver changes can sometimes be the defining mark of a team principal and Vowles has laid all his cards on the table and put them on Colapinto.
Nobody is expecting Colapinto to shatter records, but Vowles needs him to be somewhere in the sometimes chasm that was open between Albon and Sargeant.
It's a gamble, but given Sainz is coming aboard for 2025, a relatively risk-free one.
Also interesting:
In the latest episode of the RacingNews365 podcast, Nick and Sam reflect on last weekend's Dutch Grand Prix and look ahead to this weekend's Italian Grand Prix. Lando Norris' emphatic win and Red Bull's difficulties are discussed, as well as the chances of Logan Sargeant being replaced.
Rather watch the podcast? Then CLICK HERE!
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