Red Bull risk a repeat of old mistakes with Lawson promotion

Never before has Red Bull promoted a junior driver with such inexperience to its senior team.

With 11 grand prix starts to his name, Liam Lawson has been entrusted with aiding a world championship contending team in Red Bull during what could be one of the closest F1 seasons for some time.

Red Bull was undoubtedly correct to make a change as Sergio Perez struggled for form throughout much of the 2024 campaign.

His on-track woes were so great that Red Bull slipped to third in the constructors' standings - a remarkable slump considering Max Verstappen won the drivers' championship with a 63-point margin over Lando Norris.

Perez was a weak link in Red Bull's set-up - but how certain is it that Lawson will plug the leak of championship points?

Mistakes of the past

It is undoubtedly a major risk for Red Bull as Lawson is still coming to grips with F1 early in his career.

The New Zealander recently explained to RacingNews365 the benefit of sitting in the Red Bull garage as a reserve driver for the last three seasons when not racing, allowing him to observe Verstappen and his championship-winning methods.

But now he will face up against the four-time world champion. Although they are both driving a common goal for Red Bull, the most simple measure of a driver's abilities is his performance against his team mate.

Perez was a shining example of this as his lacklustre drives against Verstappen often saw him thrown into midfield battles.

Before Perez, Pierre Gasly and Alex Albon had their turns facing up against Verstappen at a time when the Dutchman was not quite the polished multi-time champion on display today.

The decision to promote Gasly in 2019 was a natural one following the exit of Daniel Ricciardo. It demonstrated the investment of the Red Bull junior programme, the same path that has gifted Lawson his current position.

Gasly, however, was given little time to prove himself at Red Bull and was replaced mid-season by Albon who, in a similar way to Lawson, found himself in the Red Bull hot seat early in his F1 career.

Albon showed flashes of speed at times and bagged a handful of podiums during his tenure, but the deficit to Verstappen was still too much for the team to commit to beyond the 2020 season.

The Thai-British driver had 12 races under his belt before his promotion - Lawson has 11.

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Lawson's key lesson

However, experience is not the only factor to be considered when judging Lawson's potential.

The decision from Red Bull has been criticised online as many fans appear to feel Yuki Tsunoda was harshly overlooked in favour of someone who has a sliver of his F1 race starts.

But Red Bull has years of data on Tsunoda and felt the potential is higher with Lawson in the car. It is a decision that will not have been taken lightly when the field is poised to be so close next year.

Backing youth and inexperience is the current trend in F1 as Lawson will be one of six drivers embarking on their first full season.

Towards the front of the field, he may be battling Kimi Antonelli, who has also rapidly risen to the foreground of the F1 pecking order.

A key mistake that Lawson must avoid is staying focused on the gap to Verstappen.

Although it is the measure that has led to the downfall of his predecessors, becoming encapsulated by the deficit that is sure to exist may well distract him from understanding the car and how it must be driven to extract speed and performance.

Lawson must accept that bar any phenomenal circumstances, he will be out-paced by his team-mate next year. He is not expected to beat Verstappen in any capacity - but there will be an underlying desire to do so.

F1 drivers have been informed from their upbringing that they are the best of the biggest sample size of young drivers. Consistent victories throughout their junior careers can result in a harsh lesson when they realise that success is not so easy to come by in F1.

It often requires being in the right place at the right time. Lawson is undoubtedly in the right place, but as to whether it's the right time remains to be seen as the task of having to overcome Verstappen has proven too difficult for others in the past.

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Setting the long-term goals

Red Bull's trust in Lawson is admirable, but it too is aware of the challenges awaiting the 22-year-old.

In the immediate release of the announcement, Red Bull team principal Christian Horner outlined it is a “daunting task” awaiting him.

Lawson will be allowed a period of nurturing as he becomes accustomed to his new surroundings and expectations, but the leash could be a short one as strong form from the get-go may well be crucial in the outcome of the final standings.

And what does Red Bull do if Lawson underperforms? Yuki Tsunoda will no doubt be looking elsewhere following his latest snub and Isack Hadjar is unlikely to be ready for a step up so soon into his F1 career - and does it really back another inexperienced driver if it all goes wrong with Lawson?

Lawson has performed strongly at every level of his career so far, but going up against Verstappen will be the biggest challenge he will likely face.

He knows he is there to do a job, which is to return Red Bull to championship-winning ways after its 2024 slump in the constructors' standings.

Lawson will have to set his Red Bull goals with a look to the long term - Verstappen may not ever be beatable as a team-mate. If he installs enough trust in the team, he may be deemed ready to one day be its lead driver.

But if he gets too caught up in the commotion and excitement, he could very well follow previous Red Bull failures out the door.