McLaren pinpoint critical factor in F1 pecking order prediction

McLaren boss Andrea Stella has highlighted an important caveat when assessing the expected competitive balance of the top four teams heading into the new F1 season.

The Italian believes the MCL40 is on par with Red Bull's RB22 after nine days of track action in Barcelona and Bahrain, but maintains it is "very difficult to say" at this point of the year.

Heading into the campaign as reigning constructors' champions, there is a target on McLaren's back, but it is widely expected that McLaren — alongside Red Bull — will be trying to claw back ground on Ferrari and Mercedes early on.

With race pace often a more accurate barometer for performance during testing because teams tend to tune down their power units or sandbag during qualifying simulations, Stella used it as his first point of reference.

When the McLaren team principal was asked by the media, including RacingNews365, about the pecking order at the Bahrain International Circuit, he replied: "It's very difficult to say.

"There was a race simulation... Oscar [Piastri] and [Max] Verstappen, it happened at a similar time of the day, and it was a similar pace.

"Often, the race simulation is actually where you can more accurately see what the genuine performance of cars is."

The 55-year-old explained why, even then, caution should be exercised, given how much track temperature differentials can cause competitive lap times to fluctuate.

Lando Norris completed a strong race run on the final afternoon in Sakhir, but Stella moved to dampen expectations.

"The reason why I think we have to be careful is that, depending on the time of day, the race simulation may be quite a lot faster," he said.

"Like now, Lando was performing pretty strongly in race simulation, but at the same time, probably the end of day three was the fastest time the track has been across the six days [of testing in Bahrain]."

In step with most predictions up and down the paddock, Stella placed the Woking-based squad in a pair with Red Bull, with Ferrari and Mercedes slightly in front heading into the Australian Grand Prix.

He added: "So difficult, I think McLaren and Red Bull are probably very similar; Ferrari and Mercedes, a step ahead."