Liam Lawson heroics should put his F1 future beyond doubt

There was a moment on the opening lap at Zandvoort when Liam Lawson went after Max Verstappen around the outside, and you could almost hear the subtext.

I'm not here this weekend just as an understudy.

The Dutchman, at his final home race, was never going to make it easy for him, of course, and duly closed the door, but Lawson had seen the opportunity and taken it.

There was no hesitation, no sense that he was going to defer to the four-time F1 drivers' champion simply because he was he occupies the other side of the Red Bull garage and he is who he is.

It was a small moment, but an important one, because it rather neatly encapsulated what Lawson's weekend was about, even if he did not feel like he had a point to prove.

He was not intimidated by the occasion, by the car, by his team-mate or, crucially, by the history attached to his return to Red Bull.

All components that, taken as the sum of the parts, mean Lawson's superb stand-in performance at the Dutch Grand Prix should have secured his Formula 1 future.

The question, now, is what should that future look like?

It's tempting to look at Lawson's weekend and conclude that he has put himself back in contention for a Red Bull seat in the future. There is logic to that, make no mistake.

He became the first driver in Red Bull's history to be moved out of its senior team and then subsequently return to race for it, and he did so by qualifying eighth, just a tenth of a second behind Verstappen, before finishing seventh and scoring six points, essentially getting the maximum that was on offer for him on what was an otherwise lonely afternoon in North Holland.

But that sells the achievement short, because Lawson should — and almost certainly has — put the rest of the Formula 1 paddock on high alert.

That, rather than another shot at Red Bull, could be the most important consequence of what he achieved in the Netherlands.

Lawson was already doing the work

The first thing that ought to be established is that Zandvoort was not some isolated flash of brilliance from a driver who had otherwise been struggling.

Lawson was already putting together one of the more impressive campaigns of the F1 season before he was called upon to replace Isack Hadjar.

He went into the weekend as the leading driver in the championship outside the top four teams, ninth in the drivers' standings, having spent much of the year fighting at the front of the midfield.

In the opening 11 rounds, the 24-year-old scored 43 points and went scoreless on just three occasions.

Despite securing two sixth-place finishes, Lawson's campaign has not been a case of punctuated equilibrium, but rather consistently strong performances.

So when Red Bull came calling because Hadjar was unavailable, Lawson was not being handed an opportunity merely for being the most senior option available. He had earned it.

And then he made the most of it.

The Verstappen benchmark says plenty

There were inevitably caveats.

Lawson had never driven the RB22 before this weekend and had just one free practice session, plus simulator preparation, to get himself ready.

It was a sprint weekend, meaning the normal luxury of gradually building familiarity with the car simply did not exist.

Even so, his qualifying pace was exceptional in the circumstances.

Across his five qualifying segments at Zandvoort, Lawson was an average of 0.128 seconds from Verstappen, while his final Q3 deficit was just 0.115s. He was actually ahead of Verstappen in two of those sections, too. 

That is significant because the benchmark Red Bull has traditionally wanted from its second driver is around three tenths.

Lawson was nowhere near that deficit; he was right there.

And perhaps the most revealing thing was how quickly he got comfortable. His sprint qualifying session was not perfect — he missed SQ3 after a disappointing second segment — but even that was an outlier against the underlying pace he had shown. He looked far more at ease in the Red Bull than during his previous two-race stint.

Yes, the team wasn't doing the weird and wonderful experiments on his car that ultimately contributed to the end of his short chapter with the team last year, and yes, Verstappen was battling illness all weekend, but Lawson demonstrated that, even with a difficult set of circumstances, he can get himself sufficiently close to the benchmark.

Then, on Sunday, he maximised what was on offer.

Red Bull clearly had the fourth-fastest car at Zandvoort. Verstappen himself was out of the race, and Lawson gained from that, but seventh was still the result of a driver getting everything he could from the weekend.

And that is exactly what Red Bull wanted from him. He delivered.

The redemption arc is there, even if Lawson doesn't want it

There is a wonderful symmetry to the whole thing.

Lawson's Formula 1 debut came at Zandvoort in 2023, when Daniel Ricciardo injured his hand, and Lawson was dropped into the AlphaTauri at short notice. Three years later, he returned to the same circuit as the established Racing Bulls driver and was once again asked to deputise because of an injury. This time, though, it was a wrist, and the destination was Red Bull. 

It was about as neat a full-circle moment as Formula 1 can produce.

And, inevitably, there has been a redemption narrative attached to it.

The last time Lawson raced for Red Bull, his two-round stint ended with a return to Racing Bulls. It does not need to be lingered on, nor should it be used to diminish what came before or after, but there was unfinished business in the most basic sporting sense.

Zandvoort allowed him to close that loop.

The interesting thing is that Lawson himself does not appear to view it that way.

There is no great sense of vindication — or validation — from him. He's repeatedly been clear that what happened last year is in the past and that he has no interest in allowing it to define him, nor does it play on his mind.

This was purely about making the most of the opportunity, exactly the right attitude to have.

It might be enormously satisfying for Lawson to return to that garage and demonstrate what he can do, but mentally, he has been crystal clear: he did not need it.

Lawson no longer needs Red Bull to fulfil the dream

This is where things become more interesting, because Lawson's ambitions have changed.

For much of his journey through the Red Bull programme, the dream was fairly obvious: get to Formula 1 with Red Bull, win with Red Bull, and ultimately fight for championships with the team that had backed him.

That's no longer how he describes it.

Lawson has spoken openly about how his goal is now simply to win in Formula 1, rather than to win specifically with Red Bull.

"Now, honestly, it's not specific," he said recently, explaining that he is focused on being at the front and winning, wherever that opportunity comes. But he is, for intents and purposes, team-agnostic on that front.

That matters when considering what comes next.

Because if the objective is winning in F1, then loyalty to the Red Bull family cannot be the overriding consideration.

And this is where I slightly disagree with the idea, put to me on the latest episode of our podcast, that Lawson has now put himself back in the shop window for Red Bull.

From Red Bull's perspective, absolutely. Because if Hadjar were unavailable again, or doesn't recover as quickly as hoped, or if something changed with the 2027 line-up, or if Red Bull simply decided it needed another option, Lawson has demonstrated that he is capable of stepping into that car and doing the job.

But Lawson should have something much more valuable now.

Options. 

Racing Bulls has a very good problem

The irony is that Lawson's excellent season has made Racing Bulls' own driver decision rather more complicated.

With Verstappen and Hadjar continuing at Red Bull for 2027, the junior team effectively has three drivers competing for two seats: Lawson, Arvid Lindblad and Nikola Tsolov.

Lindblad has been a revelation during his rookie campaign, while Tsolov is leading the F2 championship and is Red Bull's most highly regarded young driver.

Team principal Alan Permane was remarkably candid about Tsolov's position earlier this summer, describing him as "next in line" and saying that to describe him as merely being on the team's "radar" would be an understatement. 

That does not mean Tsolov has been promised Lawson's seat. Far from it.

Indeed, the speculation that this had already been decided was unfounded, and Racing Bulls has been careful to stress that its 2027 decision has not yet been made.

But the situation is clear enough: Two drivers are doing a superb job in the Racing Bulls cars and a very talented junior waiting behind them.

Tsolov's first proper taste of F1 machinery at Imola on Thursday, when he drives the team's 2025 car as part of its Testing of Previous Cars programme, is another step in that process, but it should not automatically be interpreted as a declaration that a Racing Bulls race seat is waiting for him.

If anything, it demonstrates the strength of the Red Bull driver pipeline.

And that is a good reason why Lawson should be looking beyond it.

There is life in F1 after Red Bull

Pierre Gasly is the obvious example, and he is the precedent I drew upon during our recent podcast episode.

He left Red Bull, rebuilt himself at the sister team and established a career that did not need to follow the path the six-time constructors' champions had originally mapped out for him.

Now he is the leader of Alpine's project, and with the team having Mercedes power and significant investment behind it, there is at least a credible route for Gasly to find himself fighting at the front again.

Why couldn't Lawson do something similar? That is a question Zandvoort has not raised, but reinforced.

Lawson has proved he can perform for Red Bull. He has proved he can perform for Racing Bulls. He has shown he can develop, adapt and deliver.

Most importantly, he has shown that the driver who once found himself struggling in a Red Bull can return to the same environment 18 months later and look entirely at home.

He has done what he needed to do. Perhaps more than he needed to do.

So if Racing Bulls wants to keep him, excellent. If Red Bull ever wants him back, he has shown promising signs that he can handle the moment. But if another team comes calling with a genuine opportunity to build towards the front, Lawson has earned it.

Zandvoort was where Lawson's Formula 1 journey started. It was where he returned to the Red Bull cockpit and put to bed any remaining question marks over his place in F1.

Perhaps that makes this the perfect moment for him to move on to pastures new.

If so, the question now is which team will provide him with the chance?