Lando Norris new contract a sign of increasingly 'dead' F1 driver market

Lando Norris has signed a new F1 contract to remain with McLaren until 2030, with the option for a further extension after that.

With the news of the world champion's new deal, RacingNews365's Jake Nichol and Samuel Coop take a look at what the news means for the wider driver market - and come to a surprisingly close consensus...

Jake Nichol - The market is becoming a closed shop

Norris's extension at McLaren is reflective of a driver market which is becoming an increasingly closed shop at the top four teams, thus making it harder for anyone to break in and stake their claim for a top seat.

In the past weeks Max Verstappen has confirmed he is staying at Red Bull until 2030, and Charles Leclerc also increased his bottom line with a bumper new pay-rise at Ferrari. Lewis Hamilton has a contract and the sense is he isn't going anywhere until he decides its time to call it a day on his own terms.

After the flirtation with Verstappen ended, Mercedes is going to continue with George Russell and Kimi Antonelli for the long-term, with the only seats then remaining being Oscar Piastri at McLaren and the second Red Bull seat as Verstappen's sidekick. 

Piastri's woes in 2026 are more technical-related, as he struggles to adapt to the cars but is expected to stick around, whilst Red Bull's second seat is something it prefers to keep in-house and among its juniors - so unless an outstanding option emerges, it is difficult to imagine it would look outside the tent again, especially now the pot of riches has regrown with Isack Hadjar, Liam Lawson, Arvid Lindblad, Yuki Tsunoda all performing well and Nikola Tsolov waiting in the FIA F2 wings.

So the top four is becoming a closed shop - until at least the latter half of this regulatory cycle. For the likes of Ferrari junior Oliver Bearman, it puts them in a tough position as the progression to the top team is blocked, and eventually, the need to move on becomes a major talking point to avoid the risk of going stale where he is, although it is likely Bearman will eventually get the nod when Hamilton does walk away. 

This closed shop might also explain why Carlos Sainz signed a new Williams contract, despite the team's poor showing this term - as he realised there was no prospect of a return to a top seat. 

The driver market and silly season always carry some sort of intrigue, but for the foreseeable future, the top teams have removed themselves from the board having made clear who their runners and riders are whilst the other seven teams fight over what might be termed as the 'also-rans'.

Samuel Coop - Rigor Mortis has set into the F1 driver market

Lando Norris extending his stay makes perfect sense. In fact, it is such an obvious and logical move that it doesn’t really feel like news at all, you know? Like, why wouldn’t he? Was it ever really in doubt?

And he is the in-form driver in F1 at the moment, brimming with confidence and going from strength to strength. Of course McLaren wanted to tie him into a longer contract; he has been unleashed by winning the drivers’ championship last season. 

Perhaps the timing is the curious part, cutely and conveniently mirroring Max Verstappen’s new deal at Red Bull — Norris already had multiple years left on his existing contract. It’s a sign of the times and taps into the broader, more interesting point: What those deals — including Charles Leclerc re-committing to Ferrari — mean for the F1 driver market at large.

Last weekend, Toto Wolff branded silly season "officially cancelled", and he’s right. The top four teams are now essentially confirmed; actually locked into their respective driver pairings, or, for all intents and purposes, secure for next year — and many for the foreseeable future.

That has caused stagnation throughout the rest of the paddock. Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon re-upped at Williams in the days before Verstappen was announced, even though the FW48 has been an unmitigated disaster and a car not worthy of their abilities — but where else would either have gone?

The lack of mobility further down the grid hinges on what happens at the sharp end; that has always been the case. But now, prospects and emerging talent are either stuck in the midfield or worse, on the outside looking in.

The difficulties F2 champions face is well-trodden ground at this stage, but also spare a thought for the likes of Ollie Bearman, who has performed superbly at Haas and is a Ferrari academy driver with no realistic chance of moving up to the Scuderia for the time being — to the point that he may have to look elsewhere on the grid.

That has a knock-on effect, with the highly-rated Rafael Camara, also a Ferrari junior, consequently less likely to join Bearman at Haas because the American team — and its technical partner Toyota — is understandably reluctant to give up both seats to the Italian team.

Interestingly, McLaren’s Leonardo Fornaroli is in contention for Esteban Ocon’s seat, with the Frenchman increasingly looking like the only driver in serious jeopardy of losing their place in F1 — if that does happen, it will mirror last season, when only Yuki Tsunoda was dropped — and Fornaroli, like Gabriel Bortoleto before him, is having to seek pastures new because of the staying power of Norris and Oscar Piastri at the Woking-based squad.

In some sense, the driver market is a circular economy, with young talent all but shut out from F1 and high-performing midfield runners with little to no hope of taking the next step. So, when people say the driver market is dead, it’s because rigor mortis has set in.