Here's how Kimi Antonelli can win the 2026 F1 title in the United States GP

Kimi Antonelli title permutations for United States GP

Kimi Antonelli can be crowned the youngest-ever F1 world champion at this weekend's United States Grand Prix in Austin - and this is how he can shatter Sebastian Vettel's record.

Antonelli heads to Austin with 340 points to his name, 102 clear of George Russell in second and 111 ahead of Lewis Hamilton in third place.

For him to be crowned champion, he must leave Texas with a points lead of 125 over Russell, or Hamilton - which he can only achieve with a race victory. 

A race win in the United States would automatically knock Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc, and Lando Norris out of title contention, leaving Russell and Hamilton as the only drivers who could deny Antonelli the title.

If Antonelli wins in Austin, he will move to 365 points, and a lead of 127 points over Russell and 136 over Hamilton. 

To keep the deficit to the Italian under the magic 125-point buffer he requires, Russell would be required to finish in eighth place or higher to keep his title hopes alive. This would reduce the gap to Antonelli to 123 points for a P8 finish. 

Should Russell finish exactly ninth, he will be exactly 125 points behind Antonelli, but after his ninth grand prix win of the season, the Italian would win the crown on countback as he would hold nine race wins to a maximum of eight for Russell, who would hold three wins with five races left in the season.

When championship points are tied, the first tie-breaker used is the number of grand prix wins for each driver, meaning Antonelli, with nine wins, could not be passed by Russell. 

As for Hamilton, if Antonelli wins and extends his points lead to 136 over the seven-time champion, Hamilton would be required to finish fourth or higher.

A fourth-place finish for Hamilton with an Antonelli win in Austin would have the points gap at 124 with 125 remaining. Should Hamilton finish fifth with an Antonelli win, the gap would be 126 points, handing Antonelli the title.

Should he win the world championship, Antonelli will become the youngest champion in F1 history, beating Vettel's record from 2010 by over three years, and also be the first Italian crowned since Alberto Ascari in 1953, 73 years ago. 

To date, only the very first F1 world champion - Giuseppe Farina in 1950 - and Ascari in 1952 and 1953 have won the title for Italy.

Check out the full permutations for how Kimi Antonelli can win the 2026 F1 drivers' title at the United States Grand Prix at Austin, below!