George Russell luck-adjusted F1 season reveals Kimi Antonelli F1 title truth

George Russell's 2026 F1 season quickly turned into a nightmare as team-mate Kimi Antonelli steamrolled him on his way to winning the title. 

Antonelli took the title in round 19 of the season in Mexico City, a result Mercedes boss Toto Wolff described as leaving Russell "distraught", having entered the season as the overwhelming favourite to land the crown.

Russell underlined this status by claiming victory from pole position in Australia, although it came after an early ding-dong battle with the Ferraris of Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton. 

But the season quickly got away from Russell, who has been open and vocal about his struggles with adapting his driving style to the new power units. 

The new units, of which 50% of the power output comes from the battery systems require a different driving style, whereby constantly demanding full throttle drains the batteries and leaves the car effectively 50% down on power on straights.

Russell's driving style has always depended on early throttle application on corner exit, something which harms him on straights.

However, the Briton has also suffered more than his fair share of bad luck in 2026. 

Therefore, RacingNews365 has had a look at every F1 grand prix between the season-opener in Australia and when Antonelli took the title in Mexico City. We have luck adjusted the the results, i.e given Russell back the result he likely would have achieved, and deducted the points as appropriate from Antonelli's total. 

It gives an interesting result...

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The early races

Round 1 - Australia 

Russell - P1 - 25 points

Antonelli - P2 - 18 points 

No changes required.

Round 2 - China 

Russell, having dominated the weekend in Shanghai through practice and the Sprint, suffered a sudden car issue in Q3 after it ground to a halt, with it turning out he had pulled a padel half a second too soon. Given his strength in the first half of the weekend, it is likely he would have gone on to take pole with a clear run, and probably have converted that into a win. His Sprint win remains unchanged.

Russell - P1 - 58 points. 51 points in reality. 

Antonelli - P2 - 40 points. 47 points in reality

Russell earns seven more points; Antonelli loses seven points. 

Round 3 - Japan 

Russell made a pitstop just prior to the safety car being deployed, clearing the path for a free-stop for Antonelli who went onto win. It is unlikely Russell would have won, given the pace of Antonelli, but given he finished just two seconds behind Oscar Piastri in second, an extra six points is fair. 

Russell P2 - 76 points. 63 in reality.

Antonelli P1 - 65 points. 72 points in reality.

Russell earns six more points for a second place finish instead of fourth. Antonelli doesn't change.

Round 4 - Miami

Russell was comprehensively outperformed. No changes to the results or standings needed for either Sprint or grand prix.

Russell P4 - 93 points. 80 in reality.

Antonelli P1 - 100 points. No change from reality.

No changes required.

Round 5 - Canada 

Russell was leading when he suffered an engine failure after the duel with Antonelli. It is more than fair to assume he would have gone on to add to his Sprint victory on Saturday. 

Russell P1 - 126 points. 88 in reality.

Antonelli P2 - 124 points. 131 in reality.

Russell earns 25 more points for getting the win back, and Antonelli loses seven for dropping from first to second. Sprint remains unchanged.

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The Monaco debacle

Round 6 - Monaco 

Antonelli dominated the race with a grand chelem, but Russell was handed a drive-through penalty for not serving a five-second penalty for speeding in the pit-lane at a pit-stop. However, it was found the official timekeepers had incorrectly measured the pit-lane distance, leading to the spate of penalties.

Russell dropped from third on the restart after the red flag to 12th in the final results. In this alternate world, he will receive third place and 15 points back.

Russell P3 - 141 points. In reality, 88 points.

Antonelli P1 - 149 points. In reality, 156 points.

Russell earns 15 points for finishing third. Antonelli's result remains unaffected.

Round 7 - Barcelona 

Here, in the interests of fairness, Antonelli's late engine failure must be credited back to him and points deducted from Russell. Antonelli had passed the Briton to run in second place, with Russell third, before Russell took second in the end. 

Russell P3 - 156 points. In reality, 106 points.

Antonelli P2 - 167 points. In reality, 156 points.

Antonelli earns his 18 points back for finishing second, and Russell loses three points for falling to third.

Round 8 - Austria 

No changes required, as Russell won and Antonelli finished third after a messy afternoon. 

Russell P1 - 181 points. In reality, 131 points.

Antonelli P3 - 182 points. In reality, 171 points.

No changes required.

Round 9 - Britain 

For the second time, points are added to Antonelli and deducted from Russell - with the Italian set to win the race before a wheelshield failure wrecked the handling of the car and caused him to exceed track limits and earn a time penalty, which was then compounded by the race finishing behind the safety car as he took 15th officially with Russell second. Sprint is unchanged.

Russell P3 - 186 points. In reality, 154 points.

Antonelli P1 - 207 points. In reality, 179 points.

Antonelli earns back 25 points for his lost win, whilst Russell accordingly falls from 18 points for second to third, worth 15 points. No changes to the Sprint. 

Round 10 - Belgium 

As Antonelli eased to a win, Russell suffered a loss of deployment out of La Source, and was swamped on the run to Les Combes - where he collided with Lewis Hamilton and was out of the race. The deployment issues also likely cost him a front-row in qualifying, as it was worth around two-tenths, and he was 0.191s behind Max Verstappen in second. As such, Russell will be credited with second place instead of a DNF. 

Russell P2 - 204 points. In reality, 154 points.

Antonelli P1 - 232 points. In reality, 204 points.

Russell gains 18 points for second place, which he probably should have taken on the grid. Antonelli's win leaves him untouched.

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Russell earns points back

Round 11 - Hungary 

In qualifying in Budapest, Russell damaged the sump in his engine in Q3, as he could only manage sixth on the grid - promoted one place due to Antonelli's penalty for ignoring yellow flags. This would have engine penalty consequences later in the season, and he then bogged down off the line due to another glitch. He took seventh in the race as Antonelli was third.

Here, he'll be credited with fourth, given the pace of Lando Norris, Verstappen, and Antonelli in the race.

Russell P4 - 216 points. In reality, 160 points.

Antonelli P3 - 247 points. In reality, 219 points.

Russell earns six more points for finishing fourth, as opposed to the six he took for seventh in real life. Antonelli's haul of 15 for third remain unchanged.

Round 12 - Netherlands 

No result change needed as Antonelli was firmly second best and Russell third best, although he did let Antonelli through after a team order request. Russell's Sprint win remains unchanged, where Antonelli was fourth, earning five points.

Russell P3 - 239 points. In reality, 183 points.

Antonelli P2 - 270 points. In reality, 242 points.

No changes required.

Round 13 - Italy 

Strictly speaking, Russell should have won the race after starting from pole with Antonelli down in 19th, but he didn't, as Antonelli roared to a famous first home win at Monza since Ludovico Scarfiotti in 1966. Therefore, as Russell's only problem was that he wasn't fast enough and the other guy was, he doesn't earn anything back.

Russell P2 - 257 points. In reality, 201 points.

Antonelli P1 - 295 points. In reality, 267 points.

No changes required.

Round 14 - Spain 

Antonelli was fortunate to earn a victory as Norris lost out due to an unluckily timed safety car. Therefore, Antonelli will drop to second place and lose seven points, whilst Russell fifth place remains unchanged.

Russell P6 - 265 points. In reality, 211 points.

Antonelli P2 - 313 points. In reality, 292 points.

Antonelli loses seven points for dropping to second with Norris winning. Russell's 10 points is unchanged.

Round 15 - Azerbaijan 

Russell dominated the weekend, only failing to lead FP3 as he topped every other session and recorded a grand chelem in the race. Antonelli was fifth after climbing from 16th following hitting a wall in Q1, but that is his fault, so receives no credit.

Russell P1 - 290 points. In reality, 226 points.

Antonelli P5 - 323 points. In reality, 302 points.

No changes required.

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The closing stages

Round 16 - Bahrain in Malaysia 

Russell was running third in the closing laps before the engine failure, which put him out, as Antonelli was second. Therefore, Russell earns 15 points back. 

Russell P3 - 305 points. In reality, 236 points.

Antonelli P2 - 341 points. In reality, 320 points.

Russell earns 15 points back for finishing third, as Antonelli's result is unchanged.

Round 17 - Singapore 

Russell crashed out of the lead in the Sprint in the wet conditions, an event he likely would have won, but that is driver error and not bad luck, so no points back there. 

In the race, he earns four more points, with seventh place possible had he been able to pit during his recovery drive for an engine penalty, with the virtual safety car deployed just as he passed pit-entry and then withdrawn just as he entered the pits. Antonelli unchanged.

Russell P7 - 312 points. In reality, 238 points.

Antonelli P3 - 356 points. In reality, 340 points.

Round 18 - United States 

No changes here as Antonelli was dominant from pole and Russell laboured to ninth. 

Russell - P9 - 322 points. In reality, 240 points.

Antonelli P1 - 381 points. In reality, 365 points.

No changes required.

Round 19 - Mexico City 

Russell qualified second, but suffered a deployment issue on the long run to Turn 1, which dropped him into the pack, for which Wolff apologised. He then picked up a 10-second time penalty for clattering into Hadjar.

He went onto finish in sixth for eight points, but will earn 10 points back for finishing second and taking 18 - but the penalty won't be withdrawn as that was his fault. Antonelli drops from third to fourth, accordingly, and loses three points.

Russell P2 - 340 points. In reality, 250 points.

Antonelli P4 - 393 points. In reality, 380 points.

Russell earns 10 more points for finishing second, whilst Antonelli drops from third to fourth, and loses three.

Round 20 - Sao Paulo 

Russell spun in the pit-lane coming out on slicks after the early change from intermediates, but that is driver error, as is the spin from the lead by Antonelli on the next lap. No points back for either.

Russell P4 - 352 points. In reality, 262 points.

Antonelli P5 - 403 points. In reality, 390 points.

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The conclusion

After the exercise, following the Sao Paulo GP, Russell would have 352 points instead of the 262 currently to his name.

This is a loss of 90 points. 

For Antonelli, he would hold 403 points, a rise of 13 over his real-life tally of 390 - and crucially, a 51-point lead over Russell. 

It would mean that Antonelli could seal the title in the upcoming Las Vegas Grand Prix, where a lead of at least 50 points would suffice - meaning Russell would have to finish at least eighth or better to prolong the fight to Qatar.