F1 weather forecast for Australian GP in Melbourne

The 2026 F1 season-opening Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne is set to take place in warm, dry and largely stable conditions, with little threat of rain and only light winds expected around the Albert Park circuit.

After two relatively calm days of running, the weather looks consistent heading into Sunday’s race.

Race day in Melbourne is forecast to be sunny with clear spells, with the air temperature expected to rise to around 23–24°C during the afternoon. Conditions should be slightly cooler earlier in the day, with morning temperatures closer to 13°C before warming steadily in the build-up to the 15:00 local start. 

Crucially for teams and drivers, no rainfall is expected, with forecasts placing the probability of precipitation close to 0% across the race window. 

Wind should also remain relatively manageable at Albert Park. Average wind speeds are predicted to sit around 6–8 mph (10–13 km/h), although occasional gusts could reach roughly 40 km/h as breezes move across the lakeside circuit. 

Track temperatures are likely to be a more significant factor than the ambient conditions. With sunshine expected, the asphalt could heat up to around 45°C, increasing the risk of tyre degradation during the 58-lap race. 

The dry race-day outlook follows similarly stable conditions during practice and qualifying.

Friday’s practice sessions were run in mild sunshine and temperatures between roughly 20–22°C, with only a very small chance of rain and light winds around the circuit. 

Saturday’s running was slightly cooler and cloudier, with temperatures around 19–21°C during Free Practice 3 and qualifying. Winds picked up modestly compared to Friday, but the risk of rain remained below 5%.

With weather disruption unlikely, teams are expected to focus primarily on tyre management and track evolution during the race — as well as energy management and the various new variables of the updated regulations.

The combination of warm air temperatures and significantly hotter track conditions could place extra stress on the tyres, particularly through Albert Park’s fast direction changes and traction zones.

Unless the forecast changes unexpectedly, the 2026 Australian Grand Prix should begin the season under calm and predictable weather conditions — a contrast to the rain-affected race in Melbourne just a year ago.