Crazy F1 silly season looms: Who dares make the first move?

Last year, the F1 silly season delivered one of the most dramatic grid shake-ups in recent memory.

Lewis Hamilton's shock switch to Ferrari triggered a cascade of moves that resembled nothing short of musical chairs across the paddock.

Teams scrambled for fresh talent, embracing rookies en masse, whilst even legendary designer Adrian Newey abandoned Red Bull for Aston Martin.

The aftermath of that frenzied activity means this campaign is a picture of relative stability, as teams are quietly positioning themselves for the seismic 2026 regulation changes, maintaining largely unchanged line-ups.

Among the top teams, only Red Bull appears to be in a state of flux, especially after the team also parted ways with CEO Christian Horner earlier this year. Meanwhile, Yuki Tsunoda is under serious pressure to keep his seat.

Calm before the storm

The current tranquillity in the driver market masks brewing tensions beneath the surface. Regulations changes traditionally reshuffle the competitive order, and several teams are already experiencing undercurrents of unrest and frustration.

As a result, the rumour mill for 2027 is already starting to turn — even though several drivers remain tied to long-term contracts.

Ferrari, in particular, is under the spotlight following major issues this season. It's clear that Charles Leclerc wants to give the Scuderia one final shot in 2026 before considering other options.

The Monegasque driver has only had a brief taste of title contention in seven seasons and now wants to capitalise while he is at the peak of his career.

In contrast, Lewis Hamilton is approaching the twilight of his F1 career. The Briton hopes to clinch an elusive eighth world title with Ferrari, but so far, he's failed to impress.

His contract expires at the end of 2026, although it includes an option for 2027. The big question is whether Hamilton can stomach many more setbacks or whether he'll call it a day after next season.

Delicate balancing acts

Significant developments are also unfolding at Hamilton's former employer, Mercedes. Toto Wolff's public courtship of Max Verstappen throughout this year ultimately proved fruitless, leaving the Austrian to persist with George Russell and rookie Kimi Antonelli.

However, a substantial caveat accompanies this arrangement...

Should Red Bull's transition to its own power unit disappoint performance-wise, Wolff will undoubtedly renew his pursuit of the four-time world champion.

Russell consequently appears to be operating on borrowed time, with reports suggesting only a one-year contract with an optional extension has been offered.

This immediately fuels speculation surrounding his 2026 prospects, particularly as Russell recognises Wolff's preference to construct Mercedes' future around Antonelli and potentially Verstappen.

The situation at McLaren presents another intriguing subplot. Despite Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris both holding long-term contracts, subtle tensions are beginning to surface.

The team's attempts to manage the competitive dynamic between its drivers haven't always proven seamless, as evidenced by the Singapore incident that left Piastri visibly frustrated following his clash with Norris. Whilst harmony currently prevails, questions linger over its sustainability.

The wild card

Ultimately, everything hinges upon the pecking order in 2026. History dictates that at least one major team will falter during regulation changes, potentially triggering significant driver movements.

Factor in Fernando Alonso's expiring Aston Martin contract and the rapid development of promising rookies like Isack Hadjar and Gabriel Bortoleto, and the ingredients exist for a captivating silly season.

The 2026 season promises to reset Formula 1's established order, and with it, the driver market dynamics.

As teams navigate the technical challenges ahead, the question remains: which outfit will be bold enough to kick off who promises to be crazy driver merry-go-round?