Bleak Max Verstappen-less future should scare Red Bull - but a silver lining awaits

Red Bull stared down the barrel of a future without Max Verstappen after the Dutchman retired on the opening lap of the Austrian Grand Prix.

The Milton Keynes squad's home race would only get more miserable from there, with Yuki Tsunoda collecting a 10-second time penalty en route to P16, the last of the remaining runners and two laps down on winner Lando Norris.

That is just a small, worrisome sneak preview into what lies in wait if Max Verstappen does leave for Mercedes - the talk of the paddock over the weekend at the Red Bull Ring.

Speculation had been bubbling beneath the surface, as it has been over the past year or so, but George Russell confirming Toto Wolff and Mercedes were currently engaged in talks with the four-time F1 drivers' champion on media day in Spielberg brought the subject back to the fore.

The Austrian spoke openly last season about his desire to see Verstappen race for Mercedes in the future, but with the 27-year-old ultimately not interested in leaving Red Bull at the time, he turned to Kimi Antonelli.

Wolff was not willing to let the young Italian slip through his fingers, as Verstappen did a decade ago, and now that he has arrived in F1 and is clearly up to the task, he looks set to remain in his seat for the foreseeable - even if the combination of Verstappen and Russell is viable and would immediately be stronger.

At the start of the current campaign, the 53-year-old made it clear he was happy with the line-up of Russell and Antonelli, saying he had not had a "conversation" with Verstappen about a move. That has now changed, despite Wolff continuing to insist his current drivers are "perfect".

It leaves his British driver in a precarious situation. The four-time grand prix winner is performing superbly this year and appears unfazed by the situation as he is doing all he can, but he is out of contract at the end of the season, and the Verstappen-Mercedes conversations appear to have stalled negotiations over a potential extension.

The case for '27

As for Verstappen and Red Bull, although signed until the end of 2028, exit clauses understood to be in the Dutchman's contract could pave the way for him to force a move to Brackley for the 2026 season, if he is outside the top three in the drivers' championship come the summer break.

The cruel irony for Russell is that, at just nine points adrift, he would be the driver to push Verstappen out of the top three in the drivers' standings, if that does come to pass.

There is the sense, however, that any such proviso only makes it easier for Wolff to prise Verstappen away, not that it makes it possible.

Christian Horner has long maintained he would not stand in the way of a driver under contract who wanted to leave - even Verstappen.

And even if those talks intensify, as is starting to be heavily speculated is now the case, and an agreement is reached, there is currently nothing to suggest it would be for 2026.

Would the Dutchman want to gamble on an unknown? Changing teams heading into a regulations reset is undeniably risky. What if Red Bull aces the new rules and Mercedes suffers a similar fate to the past few years?

Therefore, there is every chance that current conversations are centred on an option for 2027. This would allow Mercedes to then go back and offer Russell a one-year deal with a team option for the following campaign after initially signing Verstappen, just in case the Red Bull driver ultimately decides to stay put and honour his existing contract.

Nonetheless, although that scenario lessens the immediate jeopardy facing the six-time constructors' champions, it does not alleviate the uncertainty of a scary new reality.

No heir to Verstappen's throne

The situation at Red Bull is dire. Verstappen continues to outperform the RB21, like he did with the RB20. But no other driver can seem to handle the uniquely-challenging nature of the team's cars.

Since Lawson was jettisoned from the second seat after just two rounds, Tsunoda has only been able to contribute a mere seven points. Without his team-mate, Red Bull would be pinned to the foot of the constructors' standings.

In the last three rounds, Stake has outscored both the Japanese driver and Verstappen by 20 points to 19, underlining how little help the Dutchman is currently getting.

Even more concerning for Christian Horner and co. is that it has no viable in-house replacement for the 65-time grand prix winner.

When Sebastian Vettel departed for Ferrari in 2015, the feeling was that Daniel Ricciardo, as heir apparent, would fill the void, having beaten the German the year before, his first with the team.

Red Bull does not have the luxury of the same next driver up scenario to fall back on this time around.

Isack Hadjar has undoubtedly impressed so far this campaign, but he is nowhere near ready to ascend to the main team and survive, let alone thrive.

And Liam Lawson and Tsunoda have provided zero indication they will ever be able to even come close to Verstappen's level in one of the Milton Keynes-based squad's cars.

Arvid Lindblad continues to grow a strong reputation. The highly-touted F2 driver and Red Bull junior will make his FP1 debut for the team at Silverstone in place of Tsunoda, having been granted a super licence exemption by the FIA - he has already accrued enough points, but is still just 17 years of age.

Uncertainty breeds opportunity

However, despite the - naturally - considerable loss of Verstappen's departure, opportunity - and a silver lining - would be presented to Red Bull.

Firstly, Russell would most likely become available as a direct consequence. There is not a single driver on the current F1 grid who can hold a candle to Verstappen at the moment, but the British driver has proven so far this season that if given the right machinery, he could compete for titles.

And even if he does not remedy the lead driver situation himself, he will likely be courted by a rival team, which would move the market and could free up another top-tier talent to poach.

Secondly, and far more critically, it would allow the team space to produce a more benign and compliant car, similar to Racing Bulls'.

Red Bull would no longer be beholden to the extreme preferences of Verstappen, and it could move forward in a more team-centric manner, with two drivers better equipped to fight on an even playing field, thus solving its persistent second-seat problem.

Russell and a more agreeable package will not totally soften the blow of Verstappen leaving for a competitor, but it presents options and the ability to rebuild in a direction more orientated around and conducive for constructors' championship success.