Updated 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix weather forecast as rain suddenly threatens Spa

Rain has emerged as a genuine threat at the Belgian Grand Prix, with the latest forecasts pointing to an increased chance of showers developing around the start of the race at Spa-Francorchamps.

After conditions had appeared set to remain largely dry through Sunday afternoon, the latest forecasts now indicate the possibility of rain arriving just as the lights go out at 15:00 local time (14:00 BST), creating the prospect of another unpredictable race in the Ardennes.

There is now a 30% chance of rain around the start of the grand prix before the risk eases again later in the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to reach around 18°C, with sunny intervals, light-to-moderate winds and gusts of up to 20mph.

Forecasts are also pointing towards largely cloudy conditions with the possibility of showers developing during the afternoon, suggesting teams may need to keep a close eye on evolving radar images in the hours before the start.

While there is no indication of prolonged heavy rainfall, Spa-Francorchamps' notorious microclimate means conditions can change rapidly, with one section of the 7.004km circuit remaining dry while another is hit by a passing shower.

That uncertainty could have a significant influence on strategy, tyre selection and race management if rain arrives during the opening stages or interrupts the grand prix.

Earlier forecasts had suggested the race would remain comfortably dry, but the latest updates mean teams will now head to the grid with at least one eye on the skies.

Despite the increased rain threat, temperatures should remain comfortable at around 18-19°C throughout the race, with cloud cover limiting track temperatures compared to Friday and Saturday.