McLaren CEO Zak Brown believes the fate of the 2024 F1 constructors' championship is dependent on the form of Red Bull driver Sergio Perez.
The 52-year-old feels if the Mexican driver can re-capture his form it will be a "hard fight" between the two teams. However, if not, Brown contends McLaren has a "pretty good chance" of de-throning the reigning champions.
Perez narrowly avoided being axed over the summer break for either Daniel Ricciardo or Liam Lawson and finds himself in a wretched run of form.
Over the past nine rounds, the 34-year-old's lacklustre performances have contributed to McLaren reducing its deficit to Red Bull in the constructors' race from 115 points to 42. On its current trajectory, it will claim its first championship since 2008.
"It's going to be tough," Brown told BBC Sport, looking ahead to the final 10 rounds of the season.
"I think it's going to come down to the last race. There's not much between the cars. It's going to come down to how Sergio Perez performs.
"If he can perform as he's capable of performing, it's going to be a hard fight. If he continues to perform as he has this year, we have a pretty good chance, because we have two drivers constantly performing at the front."
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Red Bull began the current season in the same dominant form that saw it ease to both titles last year, winning all but one grand prix en route.
Despite sweeping to three one-two finishes in the opening four rounds, the Milton Keynes-based team finds itself in a fight with Brown's McLaren, even if Max Verstappen's drivers' championship situation appears more comfortable.
The papaya squad introduced a swathe of updates at the Miami Grand Prix which helped carry Lando Norris to the first victory of his F1 career. That upgrade package was also the first step in turning the constructors' title battle on its head.
McLaren's development path has seen the team reach performance parity with Red Bull, and eke ahead at some circuits, something Brown did not forecast for the current season.
"If I were to sit here and say I'm not surprised, that would be disingenuous," the American admitted. "Red Bull had such an advantage over everyone and Mercedes has been so dominant.
"I felt like we'd continue to close the gap. Did I think we would be here at the summer break, one race away from getting the lead?
"That race would have to be first and second and fastest lap, and do I think it's going to happen like that? No. But if we keep the same trajectory we've been on the last six, seven races, we'll be where we need to be by the end of the year.
"I thought we might get where we are now by 2025. I didn't think we would be where we are now in 2024. But I'm not complaining."
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In this special episode of the RacingNews365 podcast, Ian and Nick are joined by former Haas team principal Guenther Steiner! Max Verstappen being under pressure and Sergio Perez surviving are discussed, and a VERY bold prediction is made!
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