Kimi Antonelli handed 'really tricky' warning as first title-clinching opportunity awaits

Kimi Antonelli has been warned that the United States Grand Prix could prove "really tricky" if Mercedes fails to get on top of the upgrade package that has left the team guessing since Malaysia, according to Jolyon Palmer.

Antonelli arrives at Circuit of the Americas holding a commanding 102-point lead at the top of the drivers' championship, with the first opportunity to seal the title awaiting him this weekend. But the Mercedes driver's form has been complicated by an aerodynamic upgrade introduced in Sepang that the team has struggled to fully understand.

Mercedes brought a revised package to Malaysia aimed at improving downforce efficiency, and Antonelli used it to qualify in the top three and lead that race. But the update produced an unpredictable balance through Singapore, where the team ran split specifications between its two cars in an attempt to isolate the problem, keeping Antonelli on the new parts while George Russell reverted to the older package.

Asked whether Antonelli can win both the race and the title in Austin, Palmer told the F1 Nation podcast that Mercedes itself remains in the dark.

"I really don't know because Mercedes don't know at this stage. I think that's where we're at with them," said Palmer.

"So I expect them to run this upgraded package again, which they put on the car for Malaysia. They didn't understand whether it was better or worse, although they suspected it was worse. And then they split the cars for Singapore.

"They felt like they learnt something with Antonelli's car through the weekend, and I'm expecting them to probably both go with the upgraded package, but at least Kimi to stick with it.

"And we will see then if what they learnt in Singapore can mean that they start on the right foot for Austin."

United States GP offers 'room to push'

Palmer believes the nature of the Circuit of the Americas, a permanent facility with far more run-off than Marina Bay, could work in Antonelli's favour even if the car's window remains narrow.

"Good news with Austin is it's a permanent racetrack," added Palmer. "There's margin for error. There's room to push the limits. Part of the weekend [in Singapore], Kimi was feeling like the car was quite difficult to drive.

"It was in a narrow window, and obviously in Singapore, you can't afford to get it wrong, or you're in the barriers, and he sort of found that out in that Baku weekend.

"So I think Austin will suit him a little more, maybe a bit more like Malaysia, where he was able to throw caution to the wind and actually had an okay performance, qualifying in the top three and leading the race.

"And we will then see if Mercedes can finally unlock what they still think is the true potential of this car. And if they do, he can win. If they don't, I think it'll be really tricky for him still."