How Donald Trump and a dead cat will finally answer F1's Qatar and Abu Dhabi question

First things first, the dead cat referenced in the headline of this article is only metaphorical, and Tiddles remains unharmed. 

On Tuesday, November 3rd, the United States is holding its midterm elections, and the results will be crucial for president Donald Trump's reaction and whether the crisis in the Middle East spikes again, which will have an impact on F1's Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grands Prix.

Pencilled in for November 30th and December 6th, the current state of play for F1 is that the races will be going ahead as planned, although Imola is being prepared as a back-up for Abu Dhabi's slot should both races fall through. 

F1's decision will be centred around the official travel advice from the United Kingdom Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), which currently states, at the time of writing, that: "British nationals in, or planning to travel through, the Middle East should be prepared for possible flight cancellations, airspace closures, and travel disruptions." It does not advise against travel - a status which, if issued should tensions re-escalate in the next week, would almost certainly see the plug pulled.

But that advice will be decided upon after the reaction to the midterms of the occupant of the egg-shaped office in the West Wing of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. 

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What are the midterms?

In the United States, congressional elections are held every two years, with the presidential election every four. 

With Trump defeating Kamala Harris in 2024, the White House is not on the ballot again until 2028, meaning the 2026 elections focus exclusively on electing the new Congress - that is the Senate and the House.

Senators serve six-year terms, meaning one-third of the 100-member body are facing voters on Tuesday, with all 435 members of the House up for a new two-year term. 

Although the sitting president is never on the ballot in the midterms, by their very nature, coming midway through a four-year presidential term, they are seen as a referendum on the president's performance in office during the first two years of the term. 

For example, during the 2018 midterms, in Trump's first term, the House flipped from Republican control to Democratic. In Barack Obama's first midterms in 2010, a strong Democratic majority was wiped out in favour of a Republican wave. 

On paper, Tuesday's elections are proving to be a challenge for Trump. As the cost of living soars and energy and fuel prices spike after his decision to attack Iran earlier this year, the voting public is growing wary and tired of the economic situation - especially as the war drags on. 

It is expected that the House will flip to the Democrats in Tuesday's vote, with the Senate harder to flip. There are also gubernatorial races in 36 of the 50 states, with the state governors proving loyal foot soldiers for the sitting president and his agenda.

A Democratic house will prove problematic for Trump - as it can launch investigations, demand documents, and stall his legislative programme - something no sitting president wants.

And here's where our dead cat comes in - namely the Middle East.

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F1's Middle East question

After the war broke out earlier this year after the United States and Israel launched attacks on the Iranian regime, F1 tyre testing in Bahrain was cancelled, and the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian GPs, set for April, were postponed - not officially cancelled.

Bahrain was eventually held in Malaysia in October, with the only casualty so far being the Jeddah race, with Qatar and Abu Dhabi set to go ahead as planned.

However, should the midterms go badly for Trump, a very tempting option is to throw a dead cat across the table and distract attention away from his domestic woes and attack Iran - something Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as per a report in the Financial Times, is urging the American president to do as he fights for his own political survival after his coalition failed to achieve a majority in last week's elections there. 

The picture will be clearer later in the week once the midterm results have been declared. Trump has indicated that he will not attack Iran with talks underway about a ceasefire, but this must be taken with a pinch of salt given this president's unpredictability. 

For F1, the end of the road it is currently kicking the can down is approaching, with it and the FIA keeping a close eye on the developments, with assessments being made constantly about whether it is safe to race in the Middle East.

For MotoGP, its crunch point is coming this very weekend with the Qatar Grand Prix. Reports from Malaysia last weekend indicated that 19 riders did not want to race, and one report claiming that teams and riders had been threatened with a ban from the final two rounds if they did not travel to Lusail. 

The Yahama factory team has withdrawn from the event. 

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A view from a team

After the Mexico City Grand Prix, Audi racing director Allan McNish addressed the situation regarding the Qatar and Abu Dhabi races.

"We're going to Qatar and Abu Dhabi," he told media, including RacingNews365.

"All the travel, logistics, everything is going in that direction. Obviously, we're waiting to see if there is any change, and if there is, we will react to it, but at the moment, it is status quo. 

"I don't see why we would be put at an incorrect risk. From my perspective, if all the due diligence is done, and I would expect all the due diligence is being done, then we're taking the circus there. 

"It's not just one or two teams; it's a big circus. So, I think [F1 and the FIA] would be doing their background homework. But it is a situation that I think we're all very aware of, and we're all very aware that it is a moving target."

So far, F1 has been able to avoid making a decision by making the decision to delay the decision, but decision time is approaching - and for the first time, all the pieces will be on the chessboard to see the state of play - but the delicately constructed game might just be disrupted when the dead cat lands slap bang in the middle of the board...