Horner expecting 'diminishing returns' to impact Red Bull

Red Bull Team Principal, Christian Horner, is expecting a closer field in 2024 after their dominant run of victories in Formula 1.

The team won 21 races out of 22 last season, with eventual World Champion Max Verstappen leading 75% of all race laps.

Both Mercedes and Ferrari are working hard in the off-season to close the gap to Red Bull, after only Carlos Sainz managed to snatch a victory from them at the Singapore Grand Prix.

Horner expects the field to converge given the stability in the regulations year-on-year, as they look to maintain their momentum with the RB20.

“I’m fully expecting with stable regulations, [there’ll be] diminishing returns for us, because I think we got to the top of the curve quicker than others,” Horner told F1.com.

“The field is going to converge. For us, it’s difficult to know who that will be. Will it be McLaren? Will it be Ferrari? Will it be Mercedes? It keeps moving around behind us. But that’s what we’re fully expecting going into [this] year.”

Horner expects a lot of Red Bull copies

Much of the field switched car concepts to the downwash sidepods effect that Red Bull had at the beginning of the regulation cycle in 2022.

The team hardly made any significant updates to the RB19 throughout the year, but Horner expects many teams will have made developments based on their car with their 2024 challengers.

Horner explained: “There’s always a reset as you go into the following year. I’m convinced that you’ll see a lot more cars that look like the RB19 philosophy going into next year.

"If you stand still in this business, you tend to be going backwards. I think we have got up that curve quicker than others, but we’re into a law of diminishing returns.”

The first 2024 cars are set to be revealed at the beginning of next month, with Red Bull set to be the last team on February 15th.