Crucial Max Verstappen advantage could spell disaster for McLaren at Silverstone

Max Verstappen emulated his stunning Suzuka exploits to deliver another sublime pole position at the British Grand Prix, his fourth of the F1 season.

In doing so, the Red Bull driver may well have consigned the McLarens of Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris to a miserable race at Silverstone.

It is not often the RB21 has a significant advantage over the MCL39, but the Dutchman's aggressive, low-downforce rear wing vaulted him past the papaya pair with vastly superior straight-line speed at the notoriously high-speed circuit.

The four-time F1 drivers' champion will be looking to replicate the Japanese Grand Prix, at another high-speed track, where he kept the McLarens behind, despite both Norris and Piastri having superior race pace.

When analysing the data from qualifying at Silverstone, the extent of Verstappen's advantage becomes clear.

The Red Bull driver dominated the vast majority of the lap and the high-speed areas (shown below), with Piastri and Norris only quicker in patches of low-speed areas, except for the Australian curiously being quickest in the middle section of the Hangar Straight.

However, that appears to be due to battery deployment, as opposed to a better exit from Chapel or a genuine straight-line speed advantage.

Punch

The substantial advantage accounting for a little over a tenth of a second also underlines McLaren's advantage in the lower-speed sections of the track, many of which will provide the best overtaking opportunities.

Although the issue of Piastri and Norris will be getting close enough to Verstappen to challenge him into and through those corners.

In the post-qualifying FIA press conference, Norris explained that even with DRS, the MCL39's straight-line speed "just about matches" the RB21 of Verstappen.

The lap comparisons between the three drivers (see below) show the 65-time grand prix winner can achieve his advantage without using more throttle than the Woking squad's drivers.

And counter punch

Verstappen went purple in the first and second sectors (see below), but Piastri going fastest in sector three underlines how the McLaren is better able to keep hold of its tyres, the foundation of the constructors' champion's strong opening half to the campaign.

The MCL39's ability to get its Pirellis up to temperature and then keep them in the correct window, thus reducing wear and degradation, will be critical over the 52-lap British Grand Prix.

It will be key for the McLaren drivers, whose best chance at attacking Verstappen will therefore likely come towards the end of stints, when they can enjoy a tyre advantage, despite running in the RB21s dirty air somewhat mitigating that benefit - if the Red Bull driver emerges in the lead off the line.

There is also the potential for adverse weather during the race. That would hand Piastri and Norris a two-fold advantage.

Firstly, intermediate and wet-weather tyres are more difficult to get up to speed, but once they are, they are prone to overheating if not well looked after. This plays directly into their hands.

Secondly, with a low-downforce configuration on his rear wing, rain would prove trickier for Verstappen to handle

The differing strengths of the MCL39 and RB21, and the threat of changeable conditions, set up the prospect of an intriguing contest between the trio, with the Red Bull driver hoping to re-ignite his F1 drivers' championship challenge.