Red Bull's Verstappen contingency plans unpicked

The driver situation at Red Bull and RB is dynamic and in a state of flux following Daniel Ricciardo losing his seat after the Singapore Grand Prix.

The joint Milton Keynes-Faenza squad felt Ricciardo had not performed satisfactorily since his return the previous year, leading to him making way for Liam Lawson, who deputised for the Australian last term when Ricciardo injured his hand.

Lawson left a resounding impression during that five-race stint, partly by scoring points in Singapore.

The fact the 22-year-old is being deployed now, with only six rounds to run in 2024 is no coincidence.

Just about all the seats in the Red Bull family are under discussion, for various reasons. For example, the performances of Ricciardo and Sergio Perez were and are being questioned, while there were also rumours this season that Max Verstappen is looking to leave Red Bull.

The Dutchman has since confirmed that he will stay next year, but what happens next is uncertain. Will he remain loyal to Red Bull, seek out a new home in F1, or quit the championship altogether?

Whatever the outcome, Red Bull should anticipate Verstappen's possible departure now.

Why? Because an heir to his throne in Milton Keynes is not readily available and as a team you have to be prepared for all scenarios.

Red Bull has already experienced that sudden and consequential loss this year as high-profile names such as Adrian Newey, Jonathan Wheatley and Will Courtenay ready themselves for departure.

Naturally, it is almost an impossible task to succeed a driver of Verstappen's calibre, but Red Bull currently seems to recognise that it does not have a new team lead at its disposal.

Perez is probably not up to it, Ricciardo did not rekindle his brightest flame at RB and Yuki Tsunoda is too erratic in Red Bull's eyes.

Seeking a ready-made solution

It has forced Red Bull to turn the screws and move on, with Ricciardo the first domino to fall.

Having made way for Lawson, don't be surprised if the 22-year-old is in the Red Bull next year - if he immediately performs at the top of his game, as many felt he did last term.

Red Bull has acted quickly with talents before. Pierre Gasly and Alexander Albon can speak for themselves, even if their tenures at the top team were ultimately doomed.

Though Lawson remains a small link in a larger process for Red Bull, the Milton Keynes-based team is now allowing itself to test more talents at a time when the New Zealander is anticipated to perform well and the pressure on the "establishment" is mounting.

Behind the scenes, for example, Isack Hadjar and Arvid Lindblad, whom Christian Horner is a huge fan of, are being readied for F1.

Therefore, Red Bull is working towards an in-house solution to replace Verstappen, and/or Perez, when that eventuality comes to pass.

And should Lawson, Hadjar, Lindblad and the often over-looked Tsunoda fail to live up to expectations, Red Bull can always look outside its own programme.

Speculation regarding Oscar Piastri is slowly gaining momentum, and Horner indicated in Singapore that it would be "unwise" not to consider George Russell. The Mercedes driver has an expiring contract in 2025.

Ultimately, Red Bull is actively preparing for a scenario in which Verstappen leaves.

In principle, the world champion is fixed until 2028, but the team has already stated that it is not going to get in the way if Verstappen really wants to leave.

As such, it knows full well the time to get a successor ready is now. 

Naturally, Red Bull will hope that Verstappen serves out his contract as a bare minimum and perhaps ends his Formula 1 career in Milton Keynes.

However, it does not diminish the big hole the Dutchman will leave behind if he leaves Red Bull. Will the reigning champions be able to fill the void?