George Russell has outlined the F1 team that goes deepest into the season developing their car will emerge victorious in the title fight this year.
However, the Mercedes driver acknowledged whoever does so will be on the back foot for the 2026 regulations reset.
The fight at the front field this year is predicted to be a tight affair due to the close nature witnessed throughout the 2024 season.
The technical regulations have remained stable over the winter break as the teams prepare for a major switch-up in under 12 months' time.
Russell expects reigning constructors' champions McLaren to be leading the pack at the start of the year but outlined the title fight will be shaped by the development race.
“When you look at how dominant McLaren was in the second half of last year, without a doubt they’re the favourites going into this year,” Russell told media including RacingNews365.
“And when people had their strong weekends, McLaren was still there or thereabouts. I think they only had a one-off weekend in probably the whole of 2024.
“Why it's going to be so interesting is whoever continues to develop will probably win the championship.
“But you'll pay the price in 2026. Teams who come out the blocks and it's a close battle, they might continue to develop.”
However, Russell suggested a team could keep its nose in the fight if its car can adapt to the events later in the calendar, pointing to 2021 as an example.
“We also saw it in 2021, with Lewis and Max, Mercedes stopped developing and somehow they just fine-tuned the car and the setup and found massive performance in the second half of the year,” he said.
“It was just by unlocking the set-up a little bit more.
“Naturally, always in that final year of the regulations, it becomes closer.
“But I still expect McLaren to be right at the forefront plan to be right at the forefront.
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